MLB Picks – Mets and Cubs Clash

The New York Mets will be looking to win for the second consecutive time for the first time in 2010, and to win as an even baseball bet on the money line, when the super-hot Mike Pelfrey takes the mound against Carlos Zambrano.

Pelfrey has been outstanding this year. His record of 2 and 0 and ERA of 1.29 are the best in the Mets’ rotation.

His WHIP of 1.07 isn’t bad either. Pelfrey is feeling so good so far in 2010 that he asked to be put in as a relief pitcher in the Mets’ 20 inning victory over the St. Louis Cardinals this past weekend.

Game-night: 4/20/2010
First-pitch: 7:10 pm EST

Carlos Zambrano, on the other hand, will need to bounce back after a lackluster start against the Milwaukee Brewers where he allowed 8 hits in 5 innings for a 9.45 ERA. Zambrano and the Cubs lost that game 8 to 6.

The Cubbies opened up as the favorites in the MLB sportsbook, but at this point sports bettors haven’t decided on which team will go off as the chalk in this game.

Chicago Cubs
Carlos Zambrano – R -1 ½ +135 -110 O 8 Ev

New York Mets
Mike Pelfrey – R +1 ½ -155 -110 U 8 -120

According to the trends, neither team has an advantage with their respective pitcher on the mound.

• The Chicago Cubs are 8 and 1 in Carlos Zambrano’s last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• The Chicago Cubs are 4 and 1 in Carlo Zambrano’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The New York Mets are 4 and 1 in Mike Pelfrey’s last 5 starts as an underdog at home.
• The New York Mets are 9 and 2 in Mike Pelfrey’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Even though the trends don’t favor either pitcher or team in this game, there are a few very strong stats that do. The New York Mets have won 4 out of the last 5 meetings between these two teams. In those 4 victories, the Mets are hitting .293 as a team.

To make matters worse for the Cubs, Zambrano is 0 and 1 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the New York Mets. He’s also been suffering from some injury issues to his index finger and calf so far this season.

Pelfrey, in his only start ever against the Cubs, gave up one run in 8 innings of a 4 to 2 victory. Pelfrey has been on fire so far this season.

I’m surprised that the Mets aren’t bigger favorites in this game. The line opened at Cubs -115 vs. Mets -105 last night, but has gone to both Cubs and Mets at -110 this morning. To me, that trend is the one that will continue as the Mets should no doubt go off as close to a -120 favorite before the first-pitch tonight.

I see Pelfrey and the Mets winning their second game in a row tonight. Who knows how Carlos Zambrano is going to feel on the mound and besides, his best stuff was in 2008 while Pelfrey has obviously improved from 2009.

The Mets should be able to get to Zambrano and the Cubs’ middle-relief in this game while Pelfrey will keep the Cubs’ hitters from hurting New York.

I’m going with the Mets to win.

Baseball Free Pick: New York Mets -110 > > JOIN TO BET < <