MLB Odds – Baltimore Faces Another Tough Team in Minnesota on Thursday

The Baltimore Orioles, fresh off of getting swept at the hands of the New York Yankees, receive no breaks this weekend as they begin a 4 game series against the Minnesota Twins on Thursday night as baseball betting underdogs.

New York outscored Baltimore 15 to 5 in those 3 games. Baltimore is hoping that an injury to Joe Mauer, Minnesota’s best player, and a bad outing by the Twins’ Carl Pavano will lead to Baltimore’s 8th victory of the season. Pavano, of course, will have other ideas. Currently, he’s 3 and 2 with an ERA of 3.73 and a WHIP of 1.12.

The Orioles send pitcher Brad Bergesen to the mound. Bergesen has had nothing but trouble so far in 2010. His record is 1 and 2 with an ERA of 10.57. His WHIP is 2.22. Bergesen is coming off of his best start of the year, though. He pitched 5 innings allowing 7 hits and only 4 runs in Baltimore’s 12 to 9 victory over the Boston Red Sox on the 1st of May.

The Twins are the favorites in the MLB sportsbook.

Baltimore Orioles
Brad Bergesen – R +1 ½ Ev +200 O 9 ½ Ev

Minnesota Twins
Carl Pavano – R -1 ½ -120 -240 U 9 ½ -120

The trends clearly favor the Twins in this game.

• The Minnesota Twins are 25 and 6 in their last 31 games as a favorite.
• The Minnesota Twins are 12 and 3 in their last 15 games at home versus a right-handed starter.
• The Baltimore Orioles are 4 and 1 in Brad Bergesen’s last 5 starts versus a team from the American League Central.
• The Baltimore Orioles are 0 and 4 in Brad Bergesen’s last 4 starts on the road.

When your best start is a 5-inning slugfest, you have issues. Such is the case with Brad Bergesen who got the victory on May 1st when the O’s faced the BoSox despite himself.

Bergesen just doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter in MLB. His numbers are absolutely atrocious. His rival in this game, Carl Pavano, got an extra day of rest because of a stiff neck.

If the day of rest helped him at all, then Pavano should be even better than he was last Thursday when he gave up only 3 runs in 8 innings against the Tigers. Pavano lost that game because the Twins’ bats gave him no support.

He shouldn’t run into that issue on Thursday night. Since getting blanked last Thursday, the Twins haven’t scored less than 4 runs in 6 straight games. They’ve won 5 out of 6 including sweeping the Detroit Tigers in a 3 game series.

Minnesota is hot again and should put up close to 7 to 8 runs against the struggling Bergesen. They should also win this game by at least 2 runs.

The Twins are the baseball bet at -1 ½ -120 in the sportsbook.

MLB Free Picks: Minnesota Twins and Carl Pavano at -1 ½ -120