MLB Lock Alert – Under to Play Out with Cubs and Diamondbacks

The Chicago Cubs (9-8 SU, 8-9 RL, 8-7-2 O/U) and Arizona Diamondbacks (7-11 SU, 6-12 RL, 7-10-1 O/U) will both be looking to record consecutive wins when they square off in the BetOnline Sportsbook and on the field at Chase Field tonight at 9:30 PM ET.

The Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-3 as a -120 favorite on Sunday while the 13 combined runs played Over the 8.5-run O/U total.

The Diamondbacks beat the San Francisco Giants 5-4 in extra innings as a -110 favorite on Sunday while the nine combined runs played out as a PUSH against the posted over/under total (9).

The Cubs will hand the ball to left-hander Ted Lilly (2-1, 2.41 ERA) while the Diamondbacks will counter with right-hander Dan Haren (1-3, 1.38 ERA).

Lilly gave up just one unearned run and five hits in seven innings in a 3-0 loss to Cincinnati on Wednesday while Haren has an impressive 1.38 ERA, but his teammates have scored just one run in his first three starts – all losses.

Haren picked up his first victory of the 2009 season on Wednesday, shutting out the Colorado Rockies for six innings in a 2-0 win over Colorado.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

The Cubs are 4-0 in Lilly’s last 4 road starts.

The Cubs are 8-0 in Lilly’s last 8 Monday starts.

The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Haren’s last 5 Monday starts.

The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in Haren’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

The Under is 5-0 in Lilly’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.

The Under is 4-0 in Haren’s last 4 starts overall.

The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Arizona.

The Cubs are 8-27 in the last 35 meetings in Arizona.

MLB Odds

Chicago Cubs +1½ -160

Ted Lilly –L +135

Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +140

Dan Haren –R -155

Over 8½ Ev

Under 8½ -120

Analysis: The Under looks like an absolute lock to play out with two fantastic veteran starting pitchers taking the bump tonight in this matchup.

However, I like the Chicago Cubs to win this contest and extend their dominance over Arizona after going 4-2 against the D-Backs in six meetings last season and clearly possessing the more potent batting order.

MLB Free Picks: Under 8½ Total Runs/Cubs -1½ Runs