MLB Lock Alert – Mariners will take down Rangers

Red-Hot Hernandez, Impressive Mariners, To Take Down Millwood, Rangers

The Texas Rangers (12-12 SU, 12-12 RL, 12-10-12 O/U) will be looking to build on their modest two-game winning streak in the BetsUS Sportsbook when they battle the Seattle Mariners (15-10 SU, 15-10 RL, 14-11 O/U) at Safeco Field at 10 PM ET.

The Rangers will give the ball to veteran right-handed starter Kevin Millwood (2-2, 2.13 ERA) after beating the Chicago White Sox 5-1 as a +120 underdog on Sunday.

Ian Kinsler went 2-4 with a home run – the eighth leadoff dinger of his career and new franchise record – and two RBI while the six combined runs played Under the posted over/under total (10.5).

The Mariners will counter with red-hot right-hander Felix Hernandez (4-0, 2.38 ERA) as they seek to record consecutive wins after beating the Oakland A’s 8-7 in 15 innings as a -135 favorite on Sunday. The 15 combined runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9) as Jose Lopez drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 15th inning for Seattle.

Millwood is 7-9 with a 4.72 ERA in 18 career starts against Seattle and a winless 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA since beating them way back on July 23, 2007. Millwood allowed two earned runs on 10 hits in eight innings of a 5-4 win over Oakland on Tuesday.

Hernandez is off to the best start of his five-year career and limited the Chicago White Sox to just four hits while striking out nine in eight scoreless innings of a 9-1 road win on Tuesday.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

• The Rangers are 1-4 in Millwood’s last 5 starts as an underdog.
• The Rangers are 1-4 in Millwood’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts.
• The Rangers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
• The Under is 8-3 in Hernandez’s last 11 starts vs. Rangers.
• The Mariners are 2-6 in Hernandez’s last 8 home starts vs. Rangers.
• The Mariners are 1-5 in Hernandez’s last 6 starts vs. Rangers.
• The Rangers are 0-4 in Millwood’s last 4 road starts vs. Mariners.
• The Rangers are 0-5 in Millwood’s last 5 starts vs. Mariners.

MLB Odds:

• Texas Rangers +1 ½ -165
• Kevin Millwood –R +130
• Seattle Mariners -1 ½ +145
• Felix Hernandez –R -150
• Over 7½ -120
• Under 7½ Ev

Analysis: Looking at Kevin Millwood’s career record against the Mariners makes this pick even easier ever going up against a red-hot Felix Hernandez who looks to move to 5-0 with another start star in this contest.

Millwood may be an innings-eater, but he can also be knocked around pretty good on occasion.

Take the Mariners to cover the Run Line with a big win over Millwood and the Rangers’ often-prolific hitters.

MLB Free Picks: Seattle -1½ Runs/Under 7½ Total Runs