MLB: Is Atlanta a Good Baseball Bet to Beat Pittsburgh on Saturday?

Derek Lowe has fallen on hard times.

The former ace for the Los Angeles Dodgers has often times become a bet against in the MLB sportsbook.

What happened? A number of factors. Batters figure out pitchers.

Pitchers break down and never recover.

There are a lot of reasons why Derek Lowe isn’t the man on the mound that he used to be.

Lowe’s record on the season is 5 and 4. His ERA is 5.47. His WHIP is an atrocious 1.53.

But he figures to be the favorite, along with the rest of the Braves, on Saturday to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates counter Lowe with their own starter with issues.

Charlie Morton used to pitch for the Braves.

The Pirates might be wishing he still did. Morton is 1 and 7 on the season with a 9.68 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP.

He gave up 6 hits and 6 runs in only 4 innings of work in his last game, a 2 to 12 Pirates’ loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. In his start before the Philadelphia game, he allowed 7 hits and 3 runs in 6 innings of work. That’s not terrible, but the Pirates, who score only 3.51 runs per game on average, scored 0 in that game and the Pirates lost 0 to 9 to the Cincinnati Reds.

That’s why Lowe, even though his stats are terrible, will be favored over Morton in the baseball sportsbook on Saturday.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

• Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• When: May 22nd, 2010 at 7:05 pm EST
• Radio: WPGB-FM 104.7

Baseball Wagering Trends

• The Atlanta Braves are 9 and 2 in their last 11 games versus a team with a losing record.
• The Atlanta Braves are 8 and 2 in their last 10 overall.
• The Atlanta Braves are 5 and 1 in Derek Lowe’s last 6 starts on a Saturday.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1 and 5 in their last 6 games at home.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1 and 7 in Charlie Morton’s last 8 starts.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1 and 8 in Charlie Morton’s last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.

The trends point to an Atlanta Braves victory on Saturday. Nobody is going to find an argument from me.

The Pirates have gone 9 and 5 against the Braves in the past 2 seasons. They’ve gone 5 and 2 against the Braves at PNC Park the past 2 seasons. Those are stats that point to a possible Pirates victory on Saturday, but I can’t back them.

Charlie Morton’s stats are just too awful for me to look past. Morton did pitch well against the Chicago Cubs on May 5th yielding only 2 runs off of 5 hits, but that was a rare occurrence. He’s given up 5 hits or more in every game where he’s pitched.

Because of Morton’s issues, this is an easy game to call. I don’t have a lot of faith in Derek Lowe, but I have even less faith in Charlie Morton.

I’ll place a baseball bet on the Atlanta Braves to win on Saturday night.

Pick: Atlanta Braves.