MLB Betting Favorite – In the Second Game of a Double-Header, Yankees to Roll Over the Detroit Tigers

The New York Yankees face off against the Detroit Tigers in a double-header today.  Although the Yankees are the baseball betting favorite in both games, it’s the second game where sports gamblers believe the Yankees will really strut their stuff.

In Game 2 of the double-header, the Yankees send pitcher Phil Hughes to the mound.  Hughes has been a veritable ace for New York in 2010 when posting a 4 and 0 record, a 1.69 ERA and a .94 WHIP.

The Tigers look to counter Hughes with the less than spectacular Jeremy Bonderman.  Bonderman’s 1 and 1 record isn’t that bad, but his ERA of 5.47 and WHIP of 1.43 has to have Detroit’s brass worried.

Because of Bonderman’s numbers, Hughes and the Yankees are decided MLB betting favorites in the second game of the double-header tonight.

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Where:  Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan

When:  May 12th, 2010 at 7:05 pm EST

Below is the baseball betting line for Game 2 between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers.

New York Yankees G2
Phil Hughes – R                                 -1 ½ -120         -175     O 9 ½ Ev

Detroit Tigers G2
Jeremy Bonderman – R                   +1 ½ Ev          +155    U 9 ½ -120

No team has an edge in this game according to the trends.

• The New York Yankees are 4 and 0 in Phil Hughes’ last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
• The New York Yankees are 6 and 1 in Phil Hughes’ last 7 starts as a baseball bet favorite of -151 to -200.
• The Detroit Tigers are 4 and 1 in Jeremy Bonderman’s last 5 starts.
• The Detroit Tigers are 5 and 1 in their last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

The last trend is of particular interest to me.  What it shows is that for some reason the Tigers step it up when they face a pitcher that’s supposed to keep them off of the bases.  The WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) is a key stat in that it tells us a pitcher’s ability to keep the bases clear of base runners.

Hughes’ has an awesome WHIP but the trend says that the Tigers excel against pitchers like Hughes.  Hughes has been unreal, though, recording 31 strikeouts in his last 32 innings pitched and allowing no more than 2 runs in any of his last 5 starts.

But, here’s the kicker for me, Hughes has been awful against Detroit in his career.  In 3 starts against the Tigers, Hughes is 1 and 2 with a 6.32 ERA.

Bonderman hasn’t been great against the Yankees, going 3 and 7 with a 5.55 ERA in 12 games, but he’s such an underdog in this game, that taking the 1 ½ runs on him makes sense to me because it’s an even baseball bet.  My hope is that the trend regarding Detroit and the opposing pitcher’s WHIP and Hughes’ history against the Tigers comes into play tonight.

I’ll be making a baseball bet on the Detroit Tigers and the run line.

Pick:  Detroit Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman at +1 ½ Ev