Mississippi State College Basketball Expert Picks Choice Over #22 Kentucky

The #22 Kentucky Wildcats are not the college basketball expert picks choice when it comes to their game versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Tuesday, Feb. 15th.

Kentucky is a -17 ½ point favorite, but, so far, most hoops handicappers believe that the Wildcats are giving up way too many points in this game.  Mississippi State is receiving a nice 67% support in the sportsbook versus the Wildcats for Tuesday night’s game.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-11) at #22 Kentucky Wildcats (17-7)

Where:  Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky

When:  Feb. 15th, 2010 at 7:00 pm EST

TV:  ESPN

NCAAB Betting Lines

Mississippi State Bulldogs      +17 ½ -110      O 140 -110

Kentucky Wildcats                 -17 ½ -110       U 140 -110     

Check out some trends for this game.

• The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 13 or greater.
• The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Kentucky.
• The Kentucky Wildcats are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Kentucky Wildcats are 5 and 2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Just based on the trends above, it’s obvious why the Bulldogs are the college basketball expert picks choice to cover the spread in tonight’s big SEC matchup.  Mississippi State, for some reason, plays Kentucky very tough in Lexington, but do the stats back up that assertion that the ‘Dogs will cover the spread?

Mississippi State averages only 68.1 points per game while shooting around 42% from the field per contest.  On defense, the Bulldogs allow 70 points per game and 41.5% from the field per contest.  Kentucky goes for 77 points per game off of 46% shooting while allowing 63.4 points per game off of 38.7% shooting.

The Wildcats, however, have only gone 3 and 7 against the spread in the sportsbook in their last 10 games.  That, more than anything, is the reason that so many hoops handicappers are hesitant to make the Kentucky Wildcats to cover one of their college basketball expert picks for Tuesday night.

But Mississippi State hasn’t exactly been tearing things up either.  The Bulldogs are only 1-4-1 versus the betting spread in their away games this season.  Overall, they’re a horrible 5 and 13 ATS on the year.  The Bulldogs have also gone 2-2-2- ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-4-2 against the spread in their last 10.

Mississippi State is not a very good team.  They lost to Auburn 62 to 65 in their last contest.  As much as I hate to back the Kentucky Wildcats as such big favorites, that’s what I’m going to have to do tonight. 

Kentucky plays Mississippi State at Adolph Rupp Arena.  I believe they come out firing and never let up.  I’ll give up the 17 ½ points even though it pains me to do it and back Kentucky to cover the spread versus the Bulldogs on Tuesday, February 15th.

NCAA Odds Betting Pick:  Kentucky -17 ½

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