Minnesota at Dallas – Take Mavs Minus Points

The Dallas Mavericks (48-32 SU, 39-41 ATS, 38-42 O/U) will look to get back in the SU and ATS win column when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves (24-56 SU, 36-42-2 ATS, 38-40-2 O/U) at American Airlines Center tonight at 8:30 PM ET.

The Timberwolves had their modest two-game winning streak snapped in its 110-97 loss to the disappointing Phoenix Suns as 2-point home underdogs on Saturday while combined score played Under the posted Over/Under total of 224 points.

Veteran point guard Sebastian Telfair shot 8-for-12 from the field to finish with a team-high 21 points in the loss.

The Mavericks had their three-game winning streak snapped in its 102-92 loss to New Orleans as a 4-point road underdog on Sunday.

All-star forward Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavericks with a solid double-double with 29 points and 14 rebounds while the 194 combined points played just Over the 193.5-point O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Betting Free Picks.

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.

The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves +11½ -110

Dallas Mavericks -11½ -110

Over 202 -110

Under 202 -110

Analysis: While the Timberwolves have covered the spread in two of their last three games, it is the Dallas Mavericks that have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings against Minnesota and six of ten overall while winning each of the last 10 matchups against the young Timberwolves.

With playoff positioning riding on the line and playing a big part for the Mavericks in the Western Conference seeding process, I say the Mavericks win this game handily and cover the spread in the process.

NBA Free Picks: Mavericks -11½ Points/Over 202 Total Points