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Milwaukee at Cleveland – Bucks and the Points

March 5, 2009

After absolutely burning up the BetOnline Sportsbook on Tuesday with a perfect 4-0 night of NBA selections, your handicapping homeboy Eric ‘E Dubya’ Williams is back at it again with what should once again prove to be another bankroll-boosting NBA betting selection in the BetOnline Locker Room.

The Milwaukee Bucks (29-34 SU, 35-26-2 ATS, 35-28 O/U) are hoping to reach the postseason in the Eastern Conference this season, but took a big step backwards in its 99-95 home loss to New Jersey on Tuesday night.

The Bucks gave up 38 fourth-quarter points while failing to cover the spread as 4-point home favorites just as I predicted in the BetOnline Locker Room on Tuesday while the game played Under the 205.5-point O/U total.

Milwaukee is now faced with the challenge of beating the steady-as-a-rock Cleveland Cavaliers (47-12 SU, 39-20 ATS, 26-33 O/U) who are a league-best 26-1 at home this season and have won 10 of their last 11 against Milwaukee on their home floor.

The Cavaliers come into tonight’s contest riding a three-game winning streak and are coming off a thorough 107-100 win over the Miami Heat on Monday where they covered the spread as a 3.5-point road favorite.

The Cavs got a game-high 42 points from superstar forward LeBron James and 30 points from all-star point guard Mo Williams while the game played Over the 186-point O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Pick.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games when playing Cleveland

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games on the road

Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Cleveland is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games at home

Cleveland is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

NBA Odds

Milwaukee Bucks +13 -110

Cleveland Cavaliers -13 -110

Over 198 -110

Under 198 -110

Analysis: While this is a contest the Cleveland Cavaliers will undoubtedly win playing on their home floor, I like Bucks, even with their current struggles, to cover the spread against the Cavs for the fifth straight time in Cleveland.

I also like these two teams to play Over tonight’s O/U total as they have topped their respective over/under totals in seven of the last eight meetings and think that may be an even better play than the Bucks and the points.

NBA Free Picks: Over 198 Total Points/Bucks +13 Points

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