Michigan State Spartans remain undefeated as college football picks winner

The Big Ten battle in East Lansing has our college football betting picks showing Michigan State as a 7-point favorite over Illinois.

Early kickoff is from Spartan Stadium with the Big Ten Network carrying the action as Michigan State (6-0) shoots to remain undefeated.

Game Date/Time: Saturday, October 16, 12:00 ET

Game Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

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Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans

TV/Radio Broadcast: Big Ten Network, Sirius, XM

NCAA Football Odds

Illinois Fighting Illini (+7) –110

Michigan State Spartans (-7) -110

Over/Under 50.5

Many see a letdown spot for the Spartans after back to back underdog wins over Michigan and Wisconsin. But Michigan State is for real and boasts a strong, balanced offense averaging over 224 yards per game both running and passing.

When making college football picks it’s important to evaluate the motivation, situation and scheduling, but statistical profiles and fundamental match-ups are still key indicators to point spread success as well.

Michigan State holds some solid fundamental advantages despite the Fighting Illini sporting a top-20 defense allowing 305 yards per game at just 4.85 yards per play.

But while Illinois has been money-maker as a college football picks underdog this season going 3-0 ATS in that role, the linemaker has over-adjusted to Illinois’ recent play and results against Ohio State and Penn State. The Nittany Lions are dead last in the conference in scoring, and Illinois was able to get out in front and put pressure on an unproven true freshman quarterback last week.

Illinois pulled the upset in their first true road game of the season at Penn State, but the Nittany Lions entered a very banged up bunch on defense.

Facing a true freshman quarterback and a pathetic Penn State offense is hardly on par with the team they will try to tackle this week in East Lansing. Traveling for the second week in a row will be tough for Illinois with their own redshirt freshman quarterback, Nathan Scheelhaase.

The Illini passing attack is dead last in the conference averaging just 135 yards per game. Our college football picks projection expects Illinois to rely heavily on their running game and ‘veer’ sets to control the ball.

However, a one-dimensional running attack is not a recipe for success against a Spartans team that boasts one of the best linebacker combinations in the country with senior studs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.

Michigan State allows just 111 yards per game rushing despite facing two of the nations most powerful running attacks the past two weeks, as Michigan and Wisconsin both average over 240 yards per game on the ground and Michigan State won both those college football picks games by at least 10 points.

Michigan State boasts by far the better offensive strength with a powerful 1-2 punch at running back with Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell combining for 14 touchdowns with each averaging at least 7.0 yards per rush.

Add in experienced junior quarterback Kirk Cousin’s and his top-10 passing efficiency rating with 68 percent completions and nearly 10 yards per pass attempt, and it will take at least 24 points scored by the Illini to even have a chance to cover this number as a 7-point college football picks underdog.

NCAA Insider Tip: Michigan State has won and covered seven of the last eight meetings with Illinois. The Spartans have scored at least 30 points in every game this season.

The Spartans dealt with a distraction this week as starting senior cornerback Chris Rucker was suspended by coach Dantonio following his arrest Sunday for DUI. But momentum off the big state-rival win over Michigan combined with homecoming should find Michigan State prevailing as a college football picks winner in Week 7.

My NCAA Football Predictions: Michigan State Spartans (-7) -110

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