Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks – Wade can only do so much

The Miami Heat (39-35 SU, 34-38-2 ATS, 40-33-1 O/U) have dropped three of its last four games including its 101-95 loss to Orlando on Monday night. Despite getting a game-high 42 points from MVP candidate Dwyane Wade, the Heat failed to cover the spread as 3-point home underdogs while the final score played over the 193-point O/U total.

The Dallas Mavericks (44-30 SU, 36-38 ATS, 34-40 O/U) spanked the Minnesota Timberwolves 108-88 on Tuesday night as I predicted in the BetOnline Locker Room that day.

Dallas cashed in for BetOnline NBA betting backers as 8-point road favorites while the game played under the 200-point Over/Under total.

All-star forward Dirk Nowitzki had a double-double with 23 points and 12 rebounds.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Dallas

Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

Dallas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas’s last 8 games at home

NBA Odds

Miami Heat +5 -110

Dallas Mavericks -5 -110

Over 196½ -110

Under 196½ -110

Analysis: Despite their penchant for underachieving against elite teams this season, the Dallas Mavericks have won four straight games against the heat while covering the spread in two straight.

With Miami Heat MVP candidate clearly suffering for carrying the Heat by himself all season long, I say the Dallas Mavericks take this game and cover the spread handily.

NBA Free Picks: Dallas -5 Points/Under 196½ Total Points