Miami at Atlanta – Do the Hawks Have what it Takes?

When the Atlanta Hawks hit the hardwood against the Miami Heat tonight, one has to wonder if the young guns from the dirty south have anything left to give. Last year, they became one of the hottest bets in town because the oddsmakers didn’t believe that Atlanta could keep up a ridiculous home record, or the spread busting behavior of a true underdog. Back then, we had our doubts and they proved us wrong.

Now we really have our doubts.

Joe Johnson has pushed the Hawks as far as he can single handedly, pumping through 21.3 points per game and passing out 6.0 assists per game. But he’s not getting much help from the other two of his “big three”. Horford puts up 10-8 per game, and Josh Smith has averaged 15-7. Those are hardly star-caliber numbers, and they certainly won’t keep the Hawks competitive in a heated race for the Eastern Conference crown.

NBA Betting Trends

-Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road

-Miami is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against Atlanta

-Miami is 2-4 SU in their last 6 against Atlanta

-Atlanta is 1-4 ATS and SU in their last 5 games

-Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home against Miami

-the total has gone UNDER in 4-of-6 when Atlanta plays Miami at home

The Miami Heat, on the other hand, have been able to soldier through right behind the Magic, Celtics and Cavaliers because of the heroic efforts of Dwyane Wade. Wade is an MVP candidate with 28-7-5 per game, while the presence of Jermaine O’Neal has added a nice lift to a team that was struggling by playing guys out of position.

However, Miami has severely struggled on the road. The lost to Orlando, which was to be expected, but they’ve also lost to Chicago in a tight fight. Can Atlanta keep this close? Not with Horford posting numbers reflective of a mid-level exception free-agent. And certainly not without Josh Smith on the floor (he is listed as doubtful due to personal issues).

Miami Heat (30-26) vs. Atlanta Hawks (32-25)

Friday, February 27th — Philips Arena, Atlanta — 7:30pm EST

NBA Line: Atlanta -5 (194.5)

The oddsmakers have skewed this heavily against the Heat, but the Heat are simply too much to handle for the defensively inept Hawks. Horford is a beast down low, but so is Udonis Haslem. The Hawks are two days apart from a tough Western Conference road trip which saw them go 1-4 SU and ATS. I just don’t think that they have the legs to keep up with Wade, or match his scoring output. Even if they do, I like the Heat to cover as they begin to focus for a serious playoff run to secure home court advantage in the first round. The Hawks are simply standing in their way.

NBA Free Pick: Miami +5 (OVER)