Making Money on Ponies – Aqueduct

Keeneland’s feature race today is the $300,000 Madison (G1), a seven furlong sprint for fillies and mares that drew a field of six.

The race marks the return of Informed Decision, who won the Breeders’’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) last November at Santa Anita.

The remarkable mare won six of her seven starts last year and is undefeated in seven starts on synthetic surfaces in her career, including four victories over the Keeneland polytrack.

Horses making their first start since the Breeders’ Cup have not exactly been a good bet so far this year, but Informed Decision is going to be very tough to beat as she tries to defend her title in the race.

I am going to single her in our Late Pick 3 play, hoping we can catch a couple of prices in the other two legs of the three race sequence.

The play of the day comes at Aqueduct, a $20,000 claiming race in which it looks like we can beat the top two likely betting interests.

Today’s Play of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Clm $20,000 (1:00 ET)
#6 Fortyninegeorgist. 5/1
#8 Venkman 10/1
#3 Lohad 5/2
#5 Telemachus 3/1

Analysis: #6 Fortyninegeorgist. came from off the pace and was wide, making a good late run to beat $7.5K non winners of two going six furlongs on the inner. The gelding got the job done despite catching a racing strip that was playing to inside speed that day. The gelding has landed in the exacta in 5 of 8 career starts. Looks like a one turn mile will not pose a problem for this guy.

#8 Venkman rallied to finish third and was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot last out, catching that inside speed bias on March 19. He won back to back races at Philly going seven furlongs and the one turn mile here looks perfect for him. Decent value on this guy if we see most of the 10/1 ML.

Horse Wagering:
WIN: #6 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,5,6,8 / 3,4,5,6,8

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 1,7,8,9 / 6 / 3,5,9,12 = $16

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KEE Race 7 Alw $58,000N2X (4:05 ET)
#9 El Crespo, #1 Riviera Cocktail, #7 Nicanor, #8 Grassy

#9 El Crespo picked up some ground late in a seventh place finish last out, his first go off a 4 1/2 month layoff. The colt drew a tough spot and was only beaten 2 1/3 lengths for the top spot. The colt is a G3 winner on turf and figures to move forward second off the bench. Decent value if we catch most of the 10/1 ML.

#1 Riviera Cocktail ships in from the left coast where the colt was a solid second last out at this level at Santa Anita off a two month break. The colt was in the mix in stakes company two and three back and fits well here in his local debut. The colt is a half to several good runners including Teammate ($618K), War Front ($484K), and Ecclesiastic ($346K).

#7 Nicanor is Barbaro’s little brother and makes his first start since beating Alw-1 foes on the grass last June at Del Park. The Matz barn is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. Solid works on the morning tab and no doubt this guy has talent, but the price is going to be on the light side.

KEE Race 8 Madison G1 (4:35 ET)
#6 Informed Decision

#6 Informed Decision is making her first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). The mare is now perfect in seven trips over synthetic surfaces. The mare won the Madison here last year off a similar layoff, and has won all four of her trips over the main track here. The Sheppard barn is 28% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. Her only knock is going to be her short price.

KEE Race 9 Alw $54,000N1X (5:05 ET)
#9 Smart Seattle, #3 Atrea, #12 Hatheer, #5 Caminadora

#6 Smart Seattle is coming off a good third last out over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita, a race that produced three next out winners. The runner up Harissa came back to win the Sunland Park Oaks on March 28. She looks primed for a good effort here in her third start off the bench for the Motion barn that usually gets us a few winners at each Keeneland meeting, but was blanked here during the first couple of days of the meeting.

#3 Atrea was a sharp maiden winner last out going five furlongs at Gulfstream Park off a seven month layoff. This gal should only get better on the stretch out. She is by Storm Cat out of a stakes placed Capote mare. Mott is 20% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #3 Wollaston Bay 8/1
R3:#5 Fortunate Run 10/1
R4: #4 Classy Jet 8/1
R5: #7 Broadway Philly 12/1
R5: 32 Belongs to Sheila 12/1
R6: #9 Pass Code 8/1
R6: #10 Holligan’s Delight 12/1
R7: #2 Buddys Dream 8/1
R8: #8 Venkman 10/1

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