Lock Alert – Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Philadelphia To Take Advantage Of Exhausted Bucks

The Bucks did their very best, and while they destroyed the Nets a couple nights ago, they fell to the Lakers while covering the spread. Now they travel to Philadelphia, where the Sixers are a hefty 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games (“hefty” was meant to be sarcastic). But, in all fairness, the Sixers are picking up their socks after a win over the Atlanta Hawks.

The lone blimp at home for the Sixers is the Charlotte Bobcats, who proved just how dangerous they can by pushing the Celtics to two over-times in a loss. And while the Sixers barely lost the to the betting spread when playing Minnesota, it was a monster 10.5-point spread. They’re getting a much fairer line against the Bucks.

NBA Betting Trends

-Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

-Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

-Milwaukee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road

-Milwaukee is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

-Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

-Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

-Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

Milwaukee is also coming off a brutal loss at home to the Lakers, where they barely covered a 7-point spread. And while that Jersey game showed a glimpse of what the Bucks are capable of doing when they’re firing on all cylinders, it’s more of a reflection of how piss poor the Nets played. The game ended 107-78 for Milwaukee.

Philadelphia is usually one of the stronger home bets in the NBA, and while their recent record doesn’t exactly reflect that, I’m banking on the Bucks having tired legs when they travel up to Philly.

Milwaukee Bucks (32-44) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (38-35)

Thursday, April 2nd — Wachovia Center, Philadelphia — 7:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Philadelphia -7.5 (198.5)

The total has gone UNDER in four of five when the Bucks play Philadelphia at home, and that’s encouraging news. They had a 110-105 anomaly when they last played, but I bet that doesn’t repeat itself. The games usually go UNDER when they play in Philly, and that’s a trend you can bet on. Don’t lose too much sleep over this pick – the Sixers will roll as the Bucks stumble.

NBA Free Pick: Philadelphia -7.5 (UNDER)