Lines on College Football – Big Ten Showdown

A Big Ten matchup is on tap this Saturday between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Purdue Boilermakers and the Line on College Football is favouring the home team by five and a half points. That’s no real surprise considering Minnesota is just 1-5 on the year while the Boilermakers come into Saturday’s action with a 3-2 mark.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers (Ross-Ade Stadium – West Lafayette, ID) 
Saturday October 16th – 12 PM ET
TV: ESPN2

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The Gophers haven’t been able to get anything going since their season opening win over Middle Tennessee, losing five straight, their last coming at the hands of the Wisconsin Badgers 41-23, dropping them to 0-2 in conference play. Purdue is fresh off a win in their Big Ten opener over Northwestern, a hard fought 20-17 decision. They’ve pretty much done the opposite as Minnesota, as after dropping their season opener, they’ve come back to win three of four games, and should have won all of them as the only loss came to Toledo, in their own building no less.  

Lines on College Football:
Minnesota – PS +5 ½ (-110) ML +180
Purdue – PS -5 ½ (-110) ML -220
Total – 51 

The problem for Minnesota, other than everything, is their defence. In their most recent loss, they gave up 473 total yards, with 250 of those coming via the run. Not only that, but Wisconsin scored five touchdowns via the running game, so saying that the Gophers’ run defence is porous is an understatement. That’s a big key to this game as Purdue lost quarterback Robert Marve for the season two games ago when he went down with a torn ACL, and in his place is redshirt freshman Rob Henry.

Henry was able to run the ball quite effectively, which is good because he stunk when he threw it. The 132 yards on the ground were much better than his 47 yards he managed through the air, and he didn’t turn it over when he was running, something he can’t say when he put it in the air.

Line on College Football betting trends:

• Favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
• Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Golden Gophers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Purdue.

The way Minnesota has been playing really leaves much to be desired, but as I go through this piece I’m having a hard time getting past the fact that Rob Henry is a redshirt freshman. He showed that he really can’t throw them ball effectively, and although Minnesota has shown they can’t stop the run, they should be able to really gang up in the box knowing this kid can’t hurt them through the air.

If Minnesota is every going to turn this season around, it has to be on Saturday against Purdue. If they can’t keep a game close against a Big Ten rival who lost their starting quarterback, then I won’t put another dime on the all season, I don’t care what the Lines on College Football are.

College Football Betting Pick: Minnesota (+5 ½)