Liberty Bowl Betting – Arkansas Razorback vs. East Carolina Pirates

The Pirates may not be on the national radar, but the two-time Conference USA Champions certainly have a big reason to view their Liberty Bowl matchup against Arkansas as a statement game. The Pirates have had a much softer schedule than the Razorbacks, who play in the SEC, but being on the verge of a ten-win season will be enough to motivate East Carolina to a victory. Of course, the oddsmakers don’t exactly see it that way.

Obviously a matchup a second-tier team against a premier program that comes from a stiff conference East Carolina finished the season 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with an attention grabbing victory over the Houston Cougars (38-32). The Pirates are one of many undervalued teams in the college betting scene, and a 6-6 ATS record has much to do with that. However, the Liberty Bowl is going to be a place for vengeance for the Pirates, who lost to Kentucky 19-25 last season.

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Quarterback Patrick Pinkney notched 296-yards and a touchdown but simply couldn’t rally his team to a win. Facing Arkansas, which allows 251.8 yards against in a very challenging conference will prove to be a make-or-break moment for Pinkney. The 25.8 points allowed average of the Razorbacks is misleading because of who they play throughout the year. In fact, the 22.1 points allowed by the Pirates on average is much more telling considering their strength of schedule is much weaker.

Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) vs. East Carolina Pirates (9-4)
Saturday, January 2nd — Liberty Bowl — 5:30pm EST

NCAAF Betting Line: Arkansas -7.5 (63.5)

The Razorbacks have had a great season from their quarterback, Ryan Mallet, who has posted games of 300+ yards in five games this season. He finished the year with 3,425 yards, 29 touchdowns and just 7 picks. He was also sacked 24 times this season. Protecting Mallet will be a tough offensive line that will have its way with the front-seven of the Pirates. Serving Mallet will be a balanced roster that has four running backs that have rushed for 300 yards or more, and five receiver that have breached the 300 yard mark ceiling.

Arkansas has also done a very good job of protecting their betting backers’ investments with a 4-1 SU/ATS record over the past five games against much stiffer competition than what East Carolina can muster. Decisive victories over schools like South Carolina, Mississippi State and a three-point loss to LSU.

East Carolina will be a school that you’ll be hearing about in the next three years, but for now they’re still king of a crap hill in Conference USA. The difficult challenges of the SEC will have honed Arkansas strengths to push them over the Pirates despite a lowering spread. All the better for you.

Furious Free Pick: Arkansas -7.5 (UNDER)