LeBron James Total Points Prop + Bonus Player Prop

The second round is officially underway in the NBA playoffs, with only the Hawks and Cavs yet to start their series. Game 1 goes tonight at the Q in Cleveland, and as always, the BetOnline Sportsbook has your action covered, offering more bets than you can shake an MVP trophy at.

Prop: Josh Smith Total Points and Rebounds

Line: Over 20½ Points+Rebounds -115

Under 20½ Points+Rebounds -115

Analysis: Smith is averaging 16.3 points and 8.9 rebounds for a total of 25.2 so far in the postseason. In the three road games in Miami, that total was down to 19.3, but in one of the games Smith played limited minutes. Over the course of the regular season, Smith averaged 15.6 points and 7.2 rebounds for a total of 22.8. On the road, those numbers were down slightly, to 15.6 points and 6.7 rebounds, making a total of 22.3.

Atlanta and Cleveland play at nearly the same pace, so no adjustment needs to be made there, although it is safe to assume Smith will probably play more minutes tonight than he averaged in the season (34.6 on the road). Smith struggled in the 3 games he played against Cleveland in the regular season, averaging only 9.7 points and 6.3 rebounds. However, he played only 33.3mpg. He should be up around 41 minutes tonight. Smith’s primary defender will be Anderson Varejao, a good defender, but one that Smith should be able to use his athleticism against.

Pick: Josh Smith OVER 20½ Points+Rebounds

Prop: LeBron James Total Points

Line: Over 29½ Points -125

Under 29½ Points -105

Analysis: LeBron averaged 32ppg against the Pistons in the first round. On the regular season he averaged 28.4, but he did it in only 37.7 minutes per game. Expect that number to be around or above 41 (depending on how close the games are) in this series against the Hawks. LeBron has looked for his teammates a lot more at home than on the road, scoring almost 6 points less per game, while playing 3 fewer minutes. On the other hand, LeBron scored 38 in Cleveland against the Pistons in Game 1 of that series.

Against Atlanta in the regular season, LeBron struggled somewhat, scoring only 26.3ppg despite playing 41.5mpg. He shot poorly from the field (44%) and horribly from deep (27%). In fact, in the one game that Atlanta won in the regular season series, LeBron had his biggest scoring night, notching 33. I expect Atlanta to be locked on to LeBron defensively, and I think LeBron will counter by trying to establish his teammates, in order to set a tone for the series. LeBron won’t get 30, but his Cavaliers will win, and just ask LeBron what’s more important.

Pick: LeBron James UNDER 29½ Points -105