Kobe Prop Betting – How much can Bryant score in Game 1 against Suns?

NBA playoff bettors who are following the Western Conference title series know that Kobe Bryant is going to be the focal point of the Los Angeles Lakers’ offense as they face off against the Phoenix Suns, as if that’s any kind of a surprise. Bryant doesn’t necessarily have to score big numbers for the Lakers to win the series, but I guess it would certainly help if he did. So what is Kobe going to do in Game 1, which begins at 9 PM ET at the US Airways Center in Phoenix? A special betting proposition has been offered, with Bryant’s total number of points at 29.5, with the "over" at -125 and the "under" at -105.

YOU WANT YOUR PROPS?
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
Western Conference Finals – Game 1
Monday, May 17 – 9 PM ET
NBA Odds – Basketball Playoff Betting:  L.A. LAKERS -6, Total 210.5

Betting Proposition
KOBE BRYANT – TOTAL POINTS         
Over  29½  Pts  -125
Under  29½  Pts  -105

In the playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Kobe Bryant had a couple of games where he experienced something of a scoring drought. In Game 4 he hit only five field goals and had 12 points total, then followed that with just 13 points in the next game. Since then it has been nothing but 30-point games for the Lakers’ star. He finished off the Thunder series with 32 points, even though he missed that last-second shot that Pau Gasol had to tip in at the end. He then proceeded to average 32 points a game against the Utah Jazz, with a high game of 35 points, and shot 52%. He wasn’t much on the rebounding side, grabbing just 15 total but none on the offensive end.

Well, all those consecutive 30-point games would seem to indicate that Bryant would sail over this number in the betting prop, right? Well, not so fast. What bothers me a little bit about going with the "over" is that there may be other matchups with the Lakers that may bear more fruit; namely, the one that has Pau Gasol in the paint, guarded by Amare Stoudamire, a limited defender to say the least, or Lamar Odom, who will be difficult to cover. Like I said at the top, Bryant doesn’t have to score a lot of points; the 13 points against Oklahoma City in Game 5 came in a 111-87 win.

It may be instructive to explore what Kobe has done against this Suns team this season. On November 12 he shot 13 for 21 and had a big game with 29 points as the Lakers won by 19 points. In the second meeting, on December 6, he scored 26 points on just sixteen shots. On December 28 he hit for 34 points, even though he was only one for five from the field. The fourth meeting produced a subpar game, where Kobe shot just seven of 16, although he almost had a triple double with ten rebounds and eight assists. For the year, he was 54% and averaged 27.5 points in those four games.

The low moment for Bryant against the Suns may have been in 2006, when he launched only three shots in the second half in a 121-90 drubbing that made the Lakers a Game 7 loser after having been up three games to one. I’m sure he will be looking especially hard for a high moment.

In this betting prop, we’re looking for a big night from Kobe, and will go over the total of 29.5 points, at a -125 price.

JAY’S PLAY:  OVER 29.5 (-125) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)