Kentucky Derby Prop Betting – Will Any Horse Win the Triple Crown?

The Triple Crown. It is the arguably one of the most coveted achievements in the entire sports world. You have to go back to 1978 to find the last time that a super horse pulled off victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes when Affirmed did it.

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

Horse to Win the Triple Crown +700

Horse not to Win the Triple Crown -1400

Here is a list of the Triple Crown winners since the honor was created…

1978: Affirmed

1977: Seattle Slew

1973: Secretariat

1948: Citation

1946: Assault

1943: Count Fleet

1941: Whirlaway

1937: War Admiral

1935: Omaha

1930: Gallant Fox

1919: Sir Barton

No offense to any of the horses in this field, but none of them are as strong as any of the horses that have won the Triple Crown in the past.

The first very important factor to consider is that there have only been 11 horses that have captured all three jewels of the Triple Crown in over 100 years of attempting the feat. Just that alone suggests that taking lousy +700 odds isn’t worth it.

Many accept the fact that the best three year old horse in the country isn’t even running in this race, as Eskendereya was scratched before the horses even drew posts with a sore leg. That’s not to say that trainer Bob Baffert won’t have his horse ready to go in the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes, and if he does, Eskendereya will most likely be amongst the favorites.

Lookin At Lucky was the 4/1 morning line favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, which is really taking a leap of faith from the oddsmakers’ standpoint. This horse has arguably the most unfortunate post draw at #1. The rail hasn’t generated a Derby winner since 1986.

That being said, even though Lookin At Lucky may be the most talented horse in this field, his likelihood of actually winning the race has been slashed dramatically because of his post.

That being said, if the favorite doesn’t win this race, you don’t have another horse in this field that has won three stakes races in his career in a row. Now, you’re asking one of them to successfully string together the three biggest races in their career, and to do it in a span of five weeks when there are still other horses out there that could be waiting to knock them off in either the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes.

Another factor that is becoming trendier is for horses to not run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown solely in preparation for the Belmont Stakes. Just take a look at what Summer Bird did last year at the Belmont, winning at the wire and clearly looking like a fresher horse than some of the others that ran the Derby and the Preakness.

Just from that standpoint, it’s really not worth it. It would be great for horse racing to find a Triple Crown winner, but laying down $1400 to make $100 is a nice investment that you will most likely see your return on in two weeks.

My Kentucky Derby Betting Prediction: No Triple Crown Winner (-1400)