Kentucky Derby Betting Tips 2010

The 2010 Run for the Roses goes to post at just after 6:00 ET on Saturday afternoon from Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Here at BetOnline Sportsbook, we’re going to offer up a few tips for what you should be looking at when you’re ready to head to the mutuels and place your Kentucky Derby betting wagers!

Tip #1: Watch the Weather – Right now, the forecast is for heavy thunderstorms in Louisville for tomorrow. That could make for a very sloppy track by the time the Derby rolls around. Keep in mind that there is an entire day of racing that goes on before the "Fastest Two Minutes in Sports," which could make the track incredibly soft. This plays to the strengths of horses that have experience on turf, which has a similar texture to wet dirt. Watch Paddy O’Prado specifically, as he was a champion turf horse that is trying to get his footing on the dirt. A wet track could level the playing field for the Irish bred colt. None of the prep races for the Kentucky Derby were run in lousy weather, so this will be a very unpredictable first for several horses.

Tip #2: Closers are Key – Normally speaking, betting on closing horses is a risky investment in the Kentucky Derby because the field is normally too difficult to navigate through with 19 other horses on the track. However, this year, there is just a ton of early speed in the race, but most of it isn’t expected to contend and be able to last the full 1 1/4 miles. Stalkers are also normally solid investments, but horses such as that aren’t normally horses that have a desire to weave through a ton of traffic. There could legitimately be 5-6 colts that try to race out to the front, and some of the stalkers, most notably the favorite, Lookin At Lucky, may be enticed into trying to run with those horses at the front. If that’s the case, the stalkers may be playing themselves into stamina issues before coming to the final furlongs, which could open the door for another horse such as Mine That Bird last year, who came out of nowhere to win the Run for the Roses.

Tip #3: Pick Your Jockeys Wisely – It’s not an accident that jockey Calvin Borel has won two of the L/3 Kentucky Derbies. Borel is an experienced jockey that knows what he’s doing every time that he hops on a colt. There are a number of inexperienced jockeys in this race, while others such as Kent Desormeaux, Julian Leparoux, and others are riding some lesser known horses that might not be good enough to win this race on their own. But as Borel showed last year on Mine That Bird, sometimes it’s not about which horse is the best, but which jockey gets the most out of his horse. #4 Super Saver has Borel on his back this year, which should immediately draw your attention.

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