Just won’t Die – Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets
Game 6 – Western Conference Playoff Series (Houston leads 3-2)
BetUS Basketball Betting Odds: HOUSTON -5, Total 179.5
Here are some of the NBA pro basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* PORT has won 12 of its last 16 games SU
* PORT has covered nine of its last 11 road games
* PORT has played its last five road games UNDER the total
* HOU has won eight of its last 11 games SU
* HOU has covered five of its last seven home games
* HOU has won its last eight home games SU
* HOU has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
Also…
* HOU has won 10 of the last 13 meetings SU
* The last three meetings have gone UNDER the total
* Six of the last nine meetings have gone OVER the total
* PORT has covered five of the last seven meetings as the road team
* HOU has won the last five meetings SU as the home team
* Six of the last eight meetings in Houston have gone UNDER the total
* HOU has had the rebounding edge in five of the last seven meetings
Yao Ming had 24 points and shot nine-for-nine from the field in Game 1 of this series. It hasn’t been so easy for him since then, as Portland has made adjustments. Sure, the big guy is always going to shoot a high percentage, but it’s actually just 49% in the last four contests. And Portland has done a good job of boxing him out, as he’s garnered just six offensive rebounds in five games.
There were a number of subtle things that made the difference in Portland’s 88-77 win in Game 5. One of them was that the Blazers forced 16 turnovers, which fueled the transition game. They were aggressive defensively, with ten steals and eight blocked shots. They shot a better percentage from beyond the three-point arc (43%-20%). They limited Houston to just three offensive boards. One thing that was perhaps not so subtle was that they got to the line 23 times to just ten for the Rockets. Sometimes in the NBA that kind of thing reverses itself when the venue changes, and Greg Oden’s lack of scoring punch (just two points in the last two games) should not go unnoticed, nor should Houston’s nine-game home winning streak.
Let’s not forget, however, that Portland won 54 games this year and actually beat out Houston in the Western Conference standings. What I’m saying is that this team can play a bit. The Brandon Roy-LeMarcus Aldridge combo is hard for Houston to stop, because the Rockets really don’t have good matchups against those guys. Point guard Aaron Brooks has calmed down quite a bit since his explosions in Games 1 and 2 (50 points combined) to shoot just 10-for-38 over the last three contests. With Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez and Oden, Portland does have a potential bench edge to exploit.
Portland, which has found itself a little on the road (covering nine of their last 11 as the visitor) has not won at the Toyota Center yet, but they have not given Houston much room to breathe, with the margins by one point and three points. Nate McMillan has a nice motivational hold on this team, which is a far cry from the trouble-ridden Blazers of a few years ago. In a game which will go down to the wire, we’ll take the points with Portland, the five-point underdog in the BetUS NBA playoff betting odds.
JAY’S PLAY: PORTLAND +5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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