Is Northern Illinois One of the Best NCAAF Picks?

Is Northern Illinois one of the best NCAAF betting picks to cover the spread this Saturday, Oct. 2nd?

The Huskies will go into their Saturday game versus the Akron Zips with a 2 and 2 record, but football handicappers should make no mistake, Northern Illinois’ 2 and 2 record is not an average 2 and 2 record. Not for a team from the MAC, anyhow.

Northern Illinois has played 3 teams from major conferences in their 4 games so far in 2010.

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They’ve more than held their own against 2 of those major conference teams and that, along with the fact that Akron enters this game with an 0 and 4 record, is the reason that the Huskies are big time 2 touchdown favorites to beat Akron on Oct. 2nd.

But are they one of the best NCAAF picks in the sportsbook to cover such a gargantuan spread?

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Akron Zips

Where: Rubber Bowl, Akron, Ohio

When: October 2nd, 2010 at 6:00 pm EST

TV: TBD

NCAAF Betting Lines

Northern Illinois Huskies -14 -110

Akron Zips +14 -110

The trends certainly don’t say that Northern Illinois is one of this weekend’s best NCAAF picks against the spread.

• The Northern Illinois Huskies are 2 and 6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.
• The Northern Illinois Huskies are 3 and 11 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10 ½ points or greater.
• The Akron Zips are 1 and 6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Akron Zips are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 conference games.

Oh, sure, Northern Illinois is the better team in this game but that’s why they’re 14-point favorites, right?

After failing ATS in their first 2 games this season, a 10 to 27 loss to Iowa State as 4-point dogs and a 23 to 17 victory over North Dakota as a 24 ½ point fave, the Huskies were sparkling in a 22 to 28 defeat to Illinois on the road as a 7-point dog and a 34 to 23 victory over Minnesota, also on the road, as 4-point dogs.

Northern Illinois is playing great football right now, but the trends are against them in this game.

Luckily for the Huskies, the Zips have been downright pathetic in 3 out of their 4 losses in 2010. In Week 1, as 8 ½ point dogs, Akron got drubbed by Syracuse at home 29 to 3. In Week 2, as 16 ½ point favorites, the Zips lost 37 to 38 to Garden-Webber.

Akron has been outscored 82 to 30 in their last 2 games. Kentucky covered a 24 ½ point spread when they beat the Zips 47 to 10 and then the Zips failed against Indiana in a 20 to 35 loss as 23-point dogs.

But the Indiana game might be one that football handicappers will want to study before making Akron’s opponent, Northern Illinois, one of their best NCAAF picks to cover ATS this Saturday.

Akron played Indiana much tougher than the odds makers thought that they would. The Zips spotted Indiana a 28 to 13 lead at half-time before buckling down in the second half and holding the Hoosiers scoreless until there was 1:35 left in the 3rd quarter.

The Hoosiers were on pins and needles in this game after Akron cut the lead back to 15 with about 13 minutes left in the 4th, but the Zips couldn’t do much after that.

Neither could Indiana, though, and that’s where I begin to lean towards taking the points when Akron faces Northern Illinois on Saturday. Akron showed that they could play defense against a decent Big Ten team in the second half of their last game.

Now, they face a somewhat slightly overrated Northern Illinois team coming off of a huge victory over Minnesota.

The Zips take on the Huskies at home and are receiving 14 points before the game even starts. I have to back Akron in this game. To me, Northern Illinois should be a 7 to 8 ½ point favorite at best considering how they’ve played on the road in recent years.

Northern Illinois is definitely not one of the best NCAAF picks to cover ATS this Saturday. I’m taking the points and backing the Akron Zips in the sportsbook.

NCAAF Betting Pick: Akron Zips +14 -110

Check out Week 5’s best NCAAF picks through this link, click here.