Indianapolis at New England Continues Heated Rivalry

Nothing encapsulates the spirit of the matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots in Week 11 NFL betting picks like the phrase “4th and 2.” With the Patriots ahead by just six points, and time winding away, Bill Belichik called a pass on 4th down with two yards to go, only to be stuffed by the Colts on a very close call with no time outs left with which to challenge the spot.

Peyton Manning seized the opportunity and thundered his team down the field, finishing with a thrilling touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne on a slant pass to win the game.

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There won’t be a more pulse-pounding NFL Week 11 pick this week than the tilt between the Colts and Patriots in what is simply being called “The Rivalry.” Right now, the Patriots are coming off a big win against Pittsburgh and are favored at home by a line of -3.0.

For the first time since 2006, this series swings back to Gillette Stadium. There aren’t many betting on NFL trends that will help you in this one. The last four games played at Gillette were split 2-2-1 ATS between the two teams. On top of that, in the past ten meetings since 2003, the teams have split the series 5-5 SU with the Patriots holding the edge against the line with a 5-4-1 ATS record.

Do you bet on Peyton Manning sticking it to the Patriots and their fans? How can you bet against Tom Brady’s hair? Can Jim Caldwell be bailed out in this coaching mismatch against The Hoody?

Injuries are probably the biggest subplot of this game. Austin Collie, Bob Sanders, Joseph Addai, Gary Bracket, Mike Hart and Clint Sessions were all held out in Week 10 action for Indy. Only Sessions and Brackett are expected to be back to bolster the Colts at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are coming off a huge win in Pittsburgh where they slaughtered the Steelers and injured Hines Ward. The Patriots are also a sturdy 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Not to be outdone, Indianapolis is also 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS rendering the betting trends useless.

This football betting matchup may or may not have huge ramifications for the season. A loss by the Patriots would drop them into a tie with Indianapolis in the conference standings, while a win by Indy could give them a vice grip in the AFC South. Even then, with so much football left to play in the season, a loss in this game won’t kill either team’s playoff chances, but it could take away a home playoff game.

What Peyton and Brady are also playing for, however, is the MVP title. Michael Vick is leading the league in quarterback rating and big games, but this is still a season where Brady and Manning have continued to do more with less than anyone else in the league.

The winner of this game puts himself at the head of the class when it comes to the MVP race, and if that’s the case, it’s hard to go against Tom Brady at this point. Of course, this remains a team game and Manning will need Sessions and Brackett at the linebacker position to bolster the defensive front.

Tom Brady and the Patriots may have their swagger back after a big against Pittsburgh, but their fans know that you can’t sleep on Peyton Manning when you bet on the NFL. Chances are that they won’t, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like the points in this one.

The difference between both teams is simple – only one team has a breakout receiver and that’s Reggie Wayne of the Indianapolis Colts. When it comes to making big plays, or confusing defenses, Peyton has always done a masterful job and you can bet he has as many tricks up his sleeves as Uncle Bill does.

The history of this matchup has been too tight in the past to for me not to feel comfortable taking the points. After all, the last five games they’ve played have been decided by a total of just 19 points; the past four by just 12.

As for the winner of the game straight up? You’ll have to wait and see later on in the week as BetOnline brings you all the breakdowns you need to make the best NFL Week 11 picks this coming weekend.

Early Week 11 Picks – Indianapolis +3.0 (UNDER)