Huge Game in the SEC – #3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #20 Mississippi Rebels

The Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Mississippi to take on the Rebels in a game that could have major consequences in the SEC Conference. I’ve got ‘Bama ranked #3 in my college football power rankings and Mississippi ranked 22nd, but I believe that there might be a flaw in the NCAA odds in this game, a flaw that could lead to profits for football bettors.

Before I get into that, let’s take a look at the college football betting odds in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Alabama Crimson Tide -6 ½ -110
Mississippi Rebels +6 ½ -110

Game-day: 10/10/2009
Kick-off: 3:30 pm EST

Here are a few NCAA football trends for this game.

• The Alabama Crimson Tide is 6 and 1 against the spread in their last 7 conference games.
• The Alabama Crimson Tide is 9 and 2 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite.
• The Mississippi Rebels are 8 and 0 against the spread in their last 8 games as the underdog.
• The Mississippi Rebels are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games as the underdog.

There is no way that the Alabama Crimson Tide should be favored by more than 4 ½ points in this game. 6 ½ is just too many points to give to Mississippi. Don’t believe me? How about this trend: Alabama is 0 and 4 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

‘Bama is undefeated at 5 and 0 but the truth about them is that besides their victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies in Week 1, a game that they could have lost, the Crimson Tide haven’t played anybody of note. They’ve beaten Florida International, North Texas, Arkansas and Kentucky. That’s not really a who’s who of talented teams.

Mississippi did lose to South Carolina in their first real test of 2009, but one little known fact is that many of the Mississippi players were just getting better from the flu. In their last game, the Rebels did a number on one of the better defensive teams in the SEC, the Vanderbilt Commodores. Ole Miss scored 23 points and allowed Vandy to put up only 7. Not only that, but the victory was on the road.

Alabama is a terrific team, no doubt, but they aren’t 6 ½ points better than the Rebels on their home turf much less on the road.

The bet is on Mississippi at +6 ½ in the College Football Sportsbook.