How the Final NFL Four Stack Up in the Playoffs

Both No. 1 seeds in the NFL playoffs have made it to the conference title games for the first time in five years. But neither the NFC’s Eagles or the AFC’s Steelers of ’04 around this time.

During a stretch from ’01 through ’04 when both top seeds played for their respective conference championships, only one made it to the Super Bowl each season. And the only successful No. 1 team was AFC East champ New England that defeated Carolina, 32-29, capturing the second of three Super Bowls in four years.

The Patriots were No. 2 when they triumphed in ’01 and ’04. In fact, the No. 2 seed has produced the most Super Bowl winners in the 21st Century – three.

You must go back to the ’93 season to find No. 1 seeds butting heads in the Super Bowl. I was at a friend’s house filled with raucus NFL fans in South Florida watching Dallas destroy Buffalo, 30-13.

All signs point to a shootout in the NFC title game with two pass-happy quarterbacks: New Orleans’ Drew Brees averages more than 272 yards through the air per game while Minnesota’s Greg Favre tosses for nearly 260 yards.

The Saints hold a slight edge in scoring, averaging 31.9 points each contest to the Vikings’ 29.4 points. Minnesota gives up 19 ½ points each game, 2.1 points fewer than New Orleans.

The Vikings are 7-1 in head-to-head games dating back to  ’95. The Saints’ lone victory came in ’02 at the Superdome where they clash Sunday evening.

New Orleans is a 3 ½ point favorite, about the average of a half-dozen sportsbooks. But the Saints are 2-4 in their last six games against the spread at home, 1-5 in the last six against the Vikings.

The spread in Sunday afternoon’s AFC title game is considerably higher – it averages 7.8 points among those same six sportsbooks favoring Indianapolis at home.

A closer look, however, shows the Jets have their strong points: Their defense allows 14.8 points per game, 4.4 fewer than the Colts while scoring 21.8 points compared to Indianapolis’ 26.

New York depends mostly on their rushing attack that led the league during the regular season, averaging more 172 yards a game. Running back Shonn Greene gained 263 yards in the two-playoff victories.

The Colts had the second best passing offense in the league as Peyton Manning averaged 282 yards during the season. That’s exactly was Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez posted in those two playoff wins.

Manning threw for 246 yards in the single playoff triumph and two touchdowns, the same number recorded by Sanchez.

New York is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight games and 5-0 on the road. The Colts are 6-2 against the spread and 14-1 in its last 15 games at home. That lone loss was on Dec. 27 to the Jets, 29-15, but Manning was rested early in the third quarter with the Colts ahead, 15-10.