Houston is an NFL Football Betting Fave vs. Denver on Sunday

I’m pretty amazed at the fact that the Houston Texans are only 2 ½ point NFL football betting favorites in their road game versus the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 26th.

The Texans have won only 1 out of their past 8 games, that’s true, but they’ve lost some heartbreakers against teams that are much, much better than the Broncos.  Houston failed to beat Baltimore in a 28 to 34 loss in overtime as 3-point dogs in Week 14.  In Week 15, they just failed altogether in a 17 to 31 loss to the Tennessee Titans.

Denver, though, is a horrible team. The Broncos have lost 5 straight and could, with some good (bad?) luck, garner the first pick in next April’s NFL Draft.

Houston Texans (5-9) at Denver Broncos (3-11)

Where:  Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
When:  Dec. 26th, 2010 at 4:05 pm EST
TV:  CBS
Radio:  Sirius-XM 125 (HOU) 154 (DEN) 

NFL Betting Line

Houston Texans                        -2 ½ -110        O 48 ½ -110

Denver Broncos                       +2 ½ -110       U 48 ½ -110

The trends favor neither team in this contest.

• The Houston Texans are 2 and 8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Houston Texans are 1 and 7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• The Denver Broncos are 2 and 5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The Denver Broncos are 2 and 8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

QB Tim Tebow, no doubt, will start his second game of the season this Sunday but that most likely won’t sway football betting handicappers to back the Broncos against the spread in this game.  Tebow wasn’t horrible in his first start when completing 50% of his passes for 2 touchdowns and 138 yards for a 100.5 QB rating.

He should be better versus the Texans on Dec. 26th since Houston’s pass defense is ranked 32nd in the league.  The Texans give up 275.1 yards per game through the air.  They allow 377 yards altogether and 27.6 points per game.  Tebow won’t be the issue when Denver takes the field versus Houston in this game.

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Denver’s defense, though, will be a big issue.  The Broncos are flat out horrible on D and the single most important reason why the football betting odds makers have set the line at Texans -2 ½ in this.  Denver is ranked 31st on defense.  They give up 386.1 total yards per game and an incredible 158.4 yards per game on the ground and 29.6 points per game.

Houston’s D may blow chunks, but their offense is actually pretty good.  The Texans average 377.6 yards per game. That ranks them 5th in the league.  They have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Andre Johnson and, more importantly for this game, one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Foster.  Foster has rushed for 1,345 yards and has 15 touchdowns this season.

If the Texans can get Foster going on the ground, then I just don’t see how the Broncos will keep up offensively.  Denver has been outscored 92 to 42 in their last 3 games combined.  They have no shot versus the football betting spread against the Houston Texans on Sunday unless something happens to both Foster and Johnson.

I just don’t see Denver being able to keep up on the scoreboard with such a lousy defense.  I’ll go with the better offense in a game between two defensively challenged teams.  That means that the Houston Texans are the team to back to cover the spread in the sportsbook.

NFL Betting Pick:  Houston Texans -2 ½ -110

More free football betting picks are in the sportsbook!

Sources:  espn.com, covers.com, nfl.com