Houston at Cincinnati – Volquez hasn’t found his Groove

April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under: MLB Baseball Betting 

BetUS MLB betting odds:  Reds -150, Astros +130, Total 9

Right-hander Felipe Paulino (1-0, 3.00 ERA) will go to the hill for the Astros, while fellow righty Edinson Volquez (2-2, 6.20 ERA), who started the season as the ace of the Cincinnati staff, gets the start for the Reds.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

(Numbers may go back to last season)

  • HOU has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
  • HOU has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
  • CIN has played eight of its last 12 games UNDER the total
  • CIN has lost five of its last seven home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

  • HOU has won 19 of the last 25 meetings
  • Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
  • HOU has won the last eleven meetings as the road team
  • Eleven of the last 16 meetings in Cincinnati have gone OVER the total

On Tuesday night the Astros got an offensive boost from Ivan Rodriguez, who hit a homer and a double, with Wandy Rodriguez (no relation) giving them seven innings of one-run ball and Houston beat the Reds 8-3. Cincinnati did not help matters, committing three errors. Houston has not yet climbed out of the National League cellar, but they have won three games in a row.

Felipe Paulino was brilliant against the Reds back on April 19, going six innings and allowing just three hits while holding Cincinnati scoreless. He struck out six batters in the game, which came just a day after he was called up from Round Rock. Paulino was more permissive last time out against Milwaukee, allowing ten hits and four runs over six innings. Paulino has shown good control, walking just two men in 12 innings as a starter. Some Astros fans are very excited about the presence of the 25-year-old Dominican in the rotation, even though he carried a 7.11 career ERA into this season.

Edinson Volquez has mastered the Astros thus far, going 3-0 since the beginning of last year with a sparkling 1.37 ERA. He held Houston to a run on four hits over six innings on April 19. That was Volquez’s only standout performance of the season, however, as his ERA has soared over the 6.00 mark with a generous WHIP ratio of 1.87. When you consider that he was 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in his rookie season, the Reds are lucky that they have gotten good work from other pitchers in staying at the .500 level.

We know what Volquez is capable of doing, but please note that there is no current run of road dominance like the Astros hold over the Reds at the Great American Ball park. Tuesday’s win was their eleventh straight in Cincinnati. We’re going with Houston in this National League matchup, and grabbing the +130 price as the underdog.

JAY’S PLAY:  HOUSTON +130

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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