Hot Against the Spread – Bucks at Mavericks

Dirk, Inconsistent Mavericks, Host Bucks, Blossoming Sessions

The Milwaukee Bucks (28-31 SU, 33-24-2 ATS, 34-25 O/U) snapped their modest two-game losing streak their last time out, beating the struggling Denver Nuggets 120-117 as a 3.5-point home underdog on Sunday.

The combined score played Over the posted over/under total of 208.5 points as veteran forward Charlie Villanueva scored a game-high 36 points and blossoming point guard Ramon Sessions added 27 points and eight assists in the win.

The Dallas Mavericks (33-23 SU, 26-30 ATS, 25-31 O/U) have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in each of their last six games and are coming into tonight’s matchup coming off a 93-76 loss to San Antonio on Tuesday night.

Small forward Josh Howard scored a team-high 19 points, but the Mavs failed to cover the spread in the BetOnline Sportsbook as a 5-point road underdog while the teams played under the 189.5-point O/U total.

Here is a look at the key betting trends for each team, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

• Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games on the road
• Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
• Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’s last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas’s last 10 games when playing Milwaukee

NBA Odds:

• Milwaukee Bucks +8 -110
• Dallas Mavericks -8 -110
• Over 210 -110
• Under 210 -110

Analysis: I’ll keep this pick simple by saying that the Bucks have covered the spread in five straight contests against the Mavericks and I fully expect them to do so again tonight, although I like the Mavs to win and keep their win one-lose one inconsistent streak alive.

If you haven’t seen Bucks point guard Ramon Sessions BetOnline NBA sports betting enthusiasts, you’re in for a treat tonight. However, one question begs to be asked. Why in the world didn’t Bucks head coach Scott Skiles start Sessions ahead of veteran Luke Ridnour from the start of the regular season seeing as how he is far and away the better player of the two?

Nevertheless, I say take the Bucks to cover the spread for the sixth consecutive time against the Mavericks.

NBA Free Picks: Milwaukee +8 Points/Over 210 Total Points