Horse Racing Update – Rachel Alexandra Impressive? Not Really!

Us horseplayers are different than other gamblers. We don’t believe in what some might call a sure thing. My fellow sports gambler writers, Mr. Torres, T. Furious, the awesome Charles Jay (I like to call him “Super Charlie Jay”…but never in public!) and of course, my main man E-dub (that’s Eric Williams), gamble on sports where putting up “juice” is the way to get it done.

Hey, I play those sports as well. I mean, I made a nice penny on the Saints last year in the NFL (although all it did was give me a few dollars above the mullah I lost betting NBA!), but my bread and butter is betting the ponies. It has to be because when you bet as much as I do, I have to turn $200 bucks into $500 or more once in a while and you can’t do that by betting on MLB, NFL, and NBA all of the time.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 60% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? Find out more exciting details HERE.]

You can make money in the online casino, but this isn’t about Pai Gow Poker (which, by the way, is the most honest online casino game I’ve ever come across. Play it, my fellow gamblers, especially with the “house way” button. So hooked!).

So, when Rachel Alexandra won this past Saturday in the Lady’s Secret Stakes, and my $60 bucks went down the tubes, I didn’t cry. Heck, no! I didn’t even shed a tear. Okay, maybe one, but it wasn’t for my $60 bucks. Nope. It was for the fact that the folks at Monmouth increased the purse of the Lady’s Secret to $400,000 specifically for Rachel.

Why didn’t I cry? Because I’m going to make all of it up by betting the Breeders’ Cup futures. Mark my words, friends. I’m making my bets this week and one of the horses I bet on will win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

How will I make money on the Breeders’ Cup Futures? By not betting on Rachel Alexandra. There is no way, unless a miracle of biology occurs, that Rachel, beautiful, lovely Rachel, wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year. Just no way.

Oh, sure, you can use the past, which is essential to most handicapping, in regards to Rachel. The past says that Rachel has a shot. She drubbed the boys last year in two key male races, the Haskell Invitational and the Woodward. Both were Grade I races and both were against, supposedly, a few of the best horses in the United States. She ran lights out in the Kentucky Oaks and that was on the Churchill Downs’ racing strip, the same strip where the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be held this year.

Rachel was awesome in all three of those races, but that was last year. Last year. This year’s Rachel Alexandra, the 2010 version, just isn’t the same horse. Why? No reason, really. It could be that she doesn’t want to run hard anymore because it hurts, like trainer Bob Baffert said about his superstar, Silver Charm, in that horse’s 5-year-old season when he would make a run and then just sort of, well, do enough to make it look like he sort of cared about winning.

Or, maybe, Rachel has just matured outside of herself. I’ve always said (not proven by the way…because I ain’t no vet!), that female horses mature quicker than male horses. I don’t mean mature in the sense that they can run faster. I mean mature in the sense that they become mature women. You know, the breeding aspect of things?

Whatever it is, Rachel isn’t running nearly as fast in 2010 as she did in 2009. When she won this past Saturday’s Lady’s Secret Stakes by running down and passing Queen Martha, Rachel stopped the clock in 1:49 and 3. Granted, the times at Monmouth Park hadn’t been very quick all day, but…1:49 and 3?

No matter how slow the track was playing that day, 1:49 and 3 is walking compared to what Rachel ran in 2009. She ran a 1:48 and 4 in the Kentucky Oaks as a young 3-year-old. She won the Mother Goose in 1:46 and 1. She beat the fellas in the Haskell Invitational in 1:47 and 1.

In fact, I’ve never seen her run as slow as she did this past Saturday. Ever.

So, what does it mean? It means that me (and a lot of you!) can jump onto the racebook and by simply discounting Rachel’s chances to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, possibly find a horse, or three, going off at overlaid betting odds.

Who are those three horses? I’m working on that. I can guarantee you, though, that one of the three, based on Saturday’s performance, will definitely not be Rachel Alexandra.

It comes down to very a simple handicapping principle. The fastest horse will win the race. Sometimes, even though hundreds of other factors may be involved, that sound, almost simpleton principle is correct. Rachel won’t win the Breeders’ Cup Classic because she’s slower than: Zenyatta, Quality Road, Blame, Twirling Candy and a host of other horses.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic may seem like a long way away, but it really isn’t. Already, horse betting odds are up in the sportsbook. Already true horseplayers (like myself!) are thinking about what are the best future book bets on the horse to win the BC Classic this year.

I’ve come to one conclusion. It’s not Rachel Alexandra. Not at +800. Save your money my friends, and read T. Furios’s, Super Charlie Jay’s, E-Dubs’s, Mr. Torres’s or my article on our Super Bowl pick. Those will definitely be coming out soon.

No matter whom we pick, you’ve got a better chance at hitting that bet then cashing a ticket on Rachel Alexandra to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Follow horse racing and find all the odds and picks right here!