Horse Racing Picks – Thursday’s Plays from Belmont and Keeneland

Padding Your Bankroll: Thursday October 15

Both Belmont Park and Keeneland are in action today, giving us plenty of races to mull over as we attempt to pad our bankroll in the Racebook. Our play of the day sends us out to Belmont Park for a first level state bred allowance race going seven furlongs on the turf. There is some rain in the forecast, so let’s make sure we are on the turf before firing away.

The Late Pick 3 today starts with the seventh race at Keeneland. It is a wide open second level allowance race and we’ll go four deep seeking the winner.

The middle leg is the $150,000 JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race.

The winner of the race earns an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Nov. 6 at Santa Anita.

If we get past the first two legs, we’ll be alive to a pair of runners in the nightcap, a $40,000 maiden claimer. My top pick is a firs time starter sitting at a generous 10/1 on the morning line.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 5 Alw $43,000N1X (3:08 ET)

#3 Compliance Officer 6/1

#5 Pegasus Tommy D. 7/2

#8 Onzain& 5/1

#2 Woodrunner 4/1

Analysis: #3 Compliance Officer raced evenly last out in his first start against winners in a race washed off the turf and contested in the mud. The colt broke his maiden two back in gate to wire fashion here going six furlongs. He got a seven week break off his last outing and came back with a near bullet morning drill on Sept. 30. He still appears to have some upside and note those first three starts came against open company and he fits with in the state bred ranks. If this happens to come off the turf, I might still give him a good look as he is bred to like a wet track.

#5 Pegasus Tommy D. has had six tries at this level, coming up short each time and he has a couple of good tries in NY bred stakes company, a fourth here last fall and a close up third here three back in July. The key here is the barn switch from O’Brien to Dutrow. The barn is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn.

Wagering Tips:

WIN: #3 to win at 7/2 or better.

EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8

TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,5,8,9,10

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 4,6,8,11 / 3,5,7 / 3,5 : $24

KEE Race 7 Alw $54,000N2X (4:05 ET)

#8 Evade, #6 Rockland, #11 Saratoga Sinner, #4 Compromise

#8 Evade gets the slight nod in a tricky race that features four runners coming back off long layoffs. The gelding is making his first start since March where the he was a non factor at this level. His last three tries at fair Grounds were n the turf after showing some talent on the poly. He beat Alw-1 company here last fall and broke his maiden over the surface at the spring ’08 meet. The gelding has decent works on the morning tab including a couple of gate drills. The barn is 16% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.

#6 Rockland is making his first start since January where he was outrun in the Holy Bull (G3). He may have been ready for a bounce off back to back wins, both hard fought efforts. He was third in his lone go on poly, which was his debut effort here last fall. Matz is 19% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.

KEE Race 8 Jessamine S. (4:35 ET)

#3 House of Grace, #7 Hatheer, #5 Smart Seattle

#3 House of Grace was a good looking maiden winner in her debut at the Spa and did it over ground labeled as good. The turf was soft yesterday and there is still some rain in the forecast for today. The third and fourth place finisher in her debut came back to graduate next out while the runner up Beautiful Song came back to run a decent third in the PG Johnson at Saratoga on Sept. 3. She has a decent pedigree, by Limehouse out of the stakes winner Gracility ($246K), who did her best work sprinting on the dirt.

#7 Hatheer showed some early zip dueling for the early lead from the inside and drew off late to break her maiden in her second career start. The runner up Dad’s Crazy won the off the turf Ms Grillo in her next start on Oct. 4 at Belmont Park. A real nice pedigree on this gal, by Storm Cat out of the stakes winner Golden Apples ($1.67 million) who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Habaya ($135K).

KEE Race 9 Md $40,000 (5:05 ET)

#3 Get Ready Go, #5 Trois Desir

#3 Get Ready Go makes his debut for the Arnold barn that is 10% winners with first time starters. Going back a couple of years here at Keeneland the barn is 3 for 12 with firsters. The colt is by More Than Ready (17% winners with debut runners) out of a Rahy mare that has dropped three foals to race, two winners, top earner Hyrocotherium ($189K). There were a couple of quick looking works last month at Churchill Downs that hint this guy might have some ability and we should catch a decent price.

#5 Trois Desir drops in for a tag for his third career start. His first two outings came on turf, both sixth place finishes. This is his second start off a ten month layoff and he should take to poly. He is by Smart Strike out of a stakes placed Saint Ballado mare. Mott is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with horses moving from maiden special to maiden claiming.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #3 Hangingonaprayer 10/1

R2: #11 Dundee 8/1

R4: #9 Too Amenable 10/1

R4: #1 Stormy Success 15/1

R7: #7 Too Critical 15/1

R7: #8 My Two Cents 8/1

R9: #6 Driven by Royalty 8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!