Horse Racing Picks – Kentucky Derby Preps from Around the Country

The Kentucky Derby Trail heats up in a big way on Saturday, with four major preps throughout the country that will give owners and trainers a chance to catch Derby Fever, and horseplayers a chance to pad their bankrolls.

We will head south today. First, it is a trip to Tampa, where a field of eleven three year olds will go in the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Then we will head over to the Big Easy, where a field of nine will head to the post in the $600,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.

Tampa Bay Race 11 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) Post time 5:26 ET

#11 Top Seed 20/1

#5 Warrior’s Reward 12/1

#4 Hello Broadway 3/1

#8 General Quarters 4/1

#11 Top Seed cannot seem to get a break at the post position draw, breaking from the outside post for the third consecutive race. The colt finished behind three of these he faces again when he was a non threatening sixth in the G3 Sam F. Davis in his three year old debut. The colt broke from the 11 post and raced wide throughout, stalking the early pace and coming up empty in the stretch. He does have a stakes win over the surface, winning the $65K Inaugural on Dec. 26 going six furlongs. His last trip was his first around two turns and it appears the very sharp Trombetta barn may not have had him fully cranked off that slow work at Palm Meadows back in Feb. 7. We will take a stab at a big price this guy puts out a much better effort here.

#5 Warrior’s Reward makes his stakes debut here in his third career start. He broke his maiden in his debut and the former Nafzger assistant Ian Wilkes usually does not have them fully cranked for their first starts. The colt returned against first level allowance foes on Feb. 19 going nine furlongs and ran second to the highly regarded Dunkirk, who earned a 98 Beyer for the win and is headed to the G1 Florida Derby in two weeks. The Wilkes trainee still appears to have plenty of upside and figures to be a decent price in this spot.

#4 Hello Broadway invades from Gulfstream where the colt dueled for the early lead and could not hold off Capt. Candyman Can in the stretch in a runner up finish in the G2 Hutcheson going seven panels. The winner came back to finish fourth in the G2 Fountain of Youth in his next start. This will be his first trip around two turns but he has enough pedigree to handle it. He is by Broken Vow out of the Storm Cat mare Nightstorm, who also produced a nice runner in Nobiz Like Shobiz ($1.5 million).

Wagering

WIN: #11 to win 12/1 or better. A win bet on #5 at 8/1 or better.

EX: 5,11 / 4,5,8,11

TRI: 5,11 / 4,5,8,11 / 2,3,4,5,8,11

Fair Grounds Race 9 Louisiana Derby (G2) Post time 4:45 CT

#3 Patena 7/2

#1 Free Country 12/1

#9 Friesan Fire 5/2

#8 Papa Clem 8/1

#3 Patena is coming off a solid effort when second in the G2 LeComte, finishing 1 ½ lengths behind #9 Friesan Fire, who returned to win the G3 Risen Star in his next outing on Feb. 7 and is the 5/2 ML fav here. Today the colt makes his first start for the Richard Dutrow barn that is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. The colt was a $250K Keeneland purchase and has a nice pedigree. He is by Seeking the Gold out of the stakes winning A.P. Indy mare Handpainted ($435K), her first foal to race. The colt has been working steadily and popped a bullet drill on Mar. 9. Expecting to see a big jump up from this colt with the barn switch to Dutrow.

#1 Free Country was the beaten favorite in the G3 Sam F. Davis, which was his stakes debut. The McPeek barn adds blinkers here and is 22% winners when adding the hood. The colt is by Big Country out of the Wild Again mare Smyrna, who has dropped four other foals to race, all winners, top earner 3 for 11 Button Wood ($145K). It may still be too early to give up on this colt and the price figures to be generous.

#9 Friesen Fire comes into this race off back to back stakes wins over the surface and finished ahead of five he faces again here with a smart looking win last out in the G3 Risen Star. The colt is one of three in the field that has won over the surface and he returned with a quick morning drill on Mar. 9. Tough to find a reason not to include this guy in the mix despite the likely short price. He draws an outside post but there is enough of a run into the first turn, and that should not be a factor.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better. A win bet on #1 at 6/1 or better.

EX: 1,3 / 1,3,8,9

TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,8,9 / 1,3,5,6,8,9

Good luck padding your bankroll today!