Horse Racing Odds – Dave In Dixie Does Not Figure to Be a Factor

Horse racing bettors know that Dave In Dixie does not figure to be one of the horses that is a factor in the Belmont Stakes, but then again, a surprise wouldn’t be surprising, if you know what I mean, given the efforts of Make Music for Me in the Derby and First Dude in the Preakness.

With five starts and not a lot of winnings, he looks, in some ways, dwarfed by the likes of Ice Box and First Dude, but in a race where no one has gone the 1-1/2 miles and there isn’t a lot of depth, why would you count a horse ridden by Calvin Borel completely out of your betting equation, especially when he has drawn the rail? Dave in Dixie, who’s got the #1 starting spot, is listed at +2000 in the Belmont Stakes betting odds.

Belmont Stakes

Saturday, June 5 – 6:32 PM ET
Belmont Park, Elmont, NY

Betting Odds to Win
(With post positions reflected)

1 Dave in Dixie +2000 2 Spangled Star  +3000 3 Uptowncharlybrown +1000 4 Make Music for Me +900 5 Fly Down   +450 6 Ice Box +300 7 Drosselmeyer  +1200 8 Game On Dude +900 9 Stately Victor  +1400 10 Stay Put  +2000 11 First Dude  +350 12 Interactif  +1200

This horse comes to the Belmont with only $75,150 in winnings, and only one win in its career – that being a maiden special last August 29, which he won by 3-1/4 lengths. Admittedly, he is not one of the most accomplished starters in the field, with two in-the-money finishes in five career starts, although oddly, he has never gone off a bigger horse betting odds than he did in that first race.

Dave in Dixie has had only one start in a Grade I stakes race, and that was in last year’s Norfolk Stakes for two-year-olds, held at the Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita. In only his second career outing, Dave in Dixie finished in sixth place as a 4-1 betting choice, but only 2-1/4 lengths behind the winner, Lookin At Lucky, this after getting off to an awful start. Dave in Dixie made his three-year old debut on February 13 in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, a prep race for the Santa Anita Derby. With a relatively clean trip, he was able to come second, less than two lengths behind Caracortado. In that race, he registered his best Beyer Speed Rating to date (95).

The San Felipe on March 13 brought disappointing results, as a late charge was not coming. Dave in Dixie finished sixth, well behind Sidney’s Candy, Caracortado and Interactif, who is in the Belmont as well (and priced at +1200 in the betting odds). A low point was the last race at Hawthorne, the Illinois Derby, which was not only a step up to a mile and an eighth, but also Dave in Dixie’s first start ever on dirt (the others were all synthetic). In this Grade III race, where he went off at 6-1 in the betting line, he finished in fifth place, 16 lengths in back. That disaster produced the horse’s lowest Beyer rating yet, at 72, and that is not going to keep him competitive in this race.

Will the addition of Calvin Borel to the mix do the trick? After Joel Rosario rode Dave in Dixie for the first four races of his career, and Jose Valdivia Jr. took over for the Illinois Derby, a change was made by owners Ike and Dawn Thrash, who figured some Borel "magic" might work for a horse that may fall a little short in terms of talent. They got about as lucky as they could get in drawing the #1 post, as Borel may not have to maneuver at all to get his preferred position.

Borel won the Kentucky Derby aboard Super Saver, his third Derby win, but he has not done all that well at Belmont. In fact, he’s only had one winner there. You can bet he’ll be riding the rail again and saving ground; when Dave in Dixie broke from the #1 position at the R.B. Lewis, he finished with that strong Beyer rating.

Trainer John Sadler has not had any winners in the Belmont Stakes, but this year he has notched three significant stakes wins along the three-year-old trail – the Santa Anita Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs. Of course, Belmont bettors realize that those wins were all with different horses. He did start Sidney’s Candy and Line of David in the Kentucky Derby.

Dave in Dixie, a Kentucky bred, is out of Dixie Union, by Risk, who herself has some great distance running in her pedigree. Way back in his lineage is High Echelon, who won the 1970 Belmont. Even at betting odds of 20/1 and Borel aboard, it might be a stretch to give this colt more than just a passing look.