Horse Racing Odds – Betting the Saratoga

The great thing about the 40-day Saratoga meeting is the fact they only take one day a week off, and after a dark day on Tuesday, we are back in action for the next six days.

The feature on today’s card is the $70,000 De La Rose, which drew a full and competitive field of fillies and mares who will do battle on the inner turf course going a mile.

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Miss Keller is the 3/1 morning line favorite off her game runner up finish in Canada in the Nassau (G2), which was contested over ground labeled as good.

With a few thunderstorms in the forecast for Saratoga Springs today, we might see some give to the turf course, which was labeled firm on Monday.

The feature is the middle leg of our Late Pick 3 play, which starts with a chalky single in Convocation.

The four-year-old colt is 3/5 on the morning line and really looks tough.

I usually don’t like singling chalk to start off a Pick 3 sequence, but it appears we have a shot of beating both likely favorites in the final two legs, which might be enough to give us a decent profit on our $16 ticket based on a $1 wager.

Today’s Play of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 6 Clm $15,000N2L (3:48 ET)
#10 Delta Thunder   9/2
#9 Renewed Hope   7/2
#3 Custers Last Stand   3/1
#4 Redwood Fever   5/1

Analysis: #10 Delta Thunder returns off a two month freshening where the colt checked in fourth for a $25K tag facing non-winners of two. Four runners have come out of that race to win next out including the winner Eagle Strike, who beat $50K starter allowance company by six lengths on July 4. He drops in for a $16K tag for his second start against winners and the extra furlong may suit this guy. It looks as if he will go off at a decent price in this spot.

#9 Renewed Hope checked in third last out against $10K non winners of two and was claimed out of the race by the RRod barn that is 7 for 11 (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The barn has cooled off at the Spa, winning with just 1 of 8 starters so far, so let’s not take too short a price on this guy here.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 3,4,9,10
TRI: 9,10 / 3,4,9,10 / 2,3,4,9,10

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Saratoga:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 9 / 3,4,6,10 / 1,4,9,10 = $16

SAR Race 7 OClm $50,000N2X (4:22 ET)
#9 Convocation

#9 Convocation does not get off cleanly, but last out made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind Haynesfield over a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. Since beating Alw-1 foes four back, this guy has hung tough in graded stakes and now drops into a much easier spot. He came back with a bullet work and looks like a standout here, but the price is going to be puny.

SAR Race 8 De La Rose (4:56 ET)
#4 Keertana, #3 Silver Reunion, #10 Miss Keller, #6 Daveron

#4 Keertana raced wide much of the trip last out in a  fifth place finish in the Locust Grove (G3) at Churchill Downs, beaten just a half length for the top spot. Proctor has this filly ready to go just about every time out, landing in the money in 12 of 13 career starts on turf. She is a multiple stakes winner and cane handle ground with some give to it, which we might see today with a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

#3 Silver Reunion makes her first start since last fall where she set the early fractions and faded to finish eighth in the Valley View (G3) at Keeneland over yielding turf. Two back she won the Riskaverse over the turf here in gate to wire fashion, earning a career top sped fig in the effort. The barn can win off the bench, hitting at a 20% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff, and the layoff runners coming off time spent at Fair Hill are usually fit and ready to go.

#10 Miss Keller is likely to go off as the favorite in here. She is coming off a game second last out in the Nassau (G2) at Woodbine. She can handle ground less than firm, beaten just a head last fall in the Valley View while 3 1/2 lengths clear of our top pick in here.

SAR Race 9 Md Sp Wt (5:30 ET)
#1 System Ready, #10 Sweet William, #9 Silver Medallion, #4 Forum

#1 System Ready checked in a non threatening fourth in her debut on the main track at Monmouth Park. That should tighten her up for her turf debut as she takes on the boys. The filly has an appealing pedigree, by More Than Ready (14% first turf) out of a stakes placed Chief Seattle mare. Pletcher hits at a 28% clip (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.

#10 Sweet William dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out, also at five furlongs on dirt on the Jersey Shore. The gelding was hammered down to the chalk tow back in his debut at Keeneland where she dueled for the early lead and faded to finish fourth. He draws a tough post here but he does have some appeal for the turf. He is by Bring the Heat, a young sire by In Excess out of a Roar mare that has dropped one other foal to race, One Hot Wish ($60K) with one of her two career wins coming on the weeds.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #1 Mr. Hooker   20/1
R2: #6 Espirito Santo   8/1
R3: #5 Datt Echo   12/1
R4: #9 Artie Luvsto Party   10/1
R7: #4 Midnight Mischief   8/1
R7: #7 Overbid   20/1
R8: #3 Silver Reunion   8/1
R9: #4 Forum   8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!