Horse Racing Handicapping – Thursday’s Winning Picks from Aqueduct

Padding Your Bankroll: Thursday January 14

A field of seven state bred fillies and mares will go 1 mile and 70 yards in the $60,000 Darlin Momma Stakes, the feature on Thursday’s nine race card at Aqueduct.

Trainer Karl Grusmark is looking to snap a losing streak at the meet, the barn winless with 23 starters of the meet.

He will have a good shot with Weathered, a five-year-old mare who has won 10 of her 23 career starts. The multiple stakes winner is dropping out of a couple of deep graded stakes and looks like she will be tough to beat.

Her main foe appears to be Sapphire Sky, who is coming off a solid runner up finish in the Luv Is Eternal Stakes back on Nov. 19.

The two fillies are both on my Late Pick 3 ticket, and while they are the two likely favorites, the three race sequence can still pay nicely.

We are going four deep in the seventh race, a wide open $10,000 claiming race. In addition, we are three deep in the final race of the day, a cheap $10,000 maiden claiming race where I think we have a good shot of beating the even money favorite Cantrushperfection.

The horse race preceding the Late Pick 3 is our play of the day, and we should catch a nice price on my top pick Le Bonne Vie.

Today’s Play of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 6 Md $50,000 (2:52 ET)
#9 Le Bonne Vie 6/1
#6 Kill the Joker 2/1
#7 Da Portici Code 5/1
#1 Maggie’s Prince / #1a Stylish Fella 6/1

Analysis: #9 Le Bonne Vie only beat two foes in a ninth place finish in his debut, but we’ll give this colt another look here. He was down along the inside much of the trip on a day most of the winners were coming from the outside paths. He also caught a good field that produced two next out winners with three others coming back to finish second in their next starts. He drops into a softer spot and has four decent drills since his debut.

#6 Kill the Joker set the early fractions in his debut but was no match for the winner in the stretch, finishing in the runner up spot while beaten 7 1/4 lengths. The colt caught an inner surface that was playing to outside stalkers and closers that day. Unless one of the newcomers has some early zip this guy could be clear early.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 1,6,7,9
TRI: 6,9 / 1,6,7,9 / 1,3,6,7,9

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 4,5,8,10 / 1,5 / 5,8,9 = $24

AQU Race 7 Clm $10,000B (3:20 ET)
#4 Gelhorn, #5 Super Child, #8 Iberian Gate, #10 Driven by Seattle

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#4 Gelhorn is making his first start off a 14 month layoff for the Galluscio barn that is showing a 3 for 7 mark (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. If we go back three years, the barn is 6 for 31 off the long layoff. The filly showed some promise on poly, breaking her maiden in her second start for a $40K tag and then beating $50K claimers in her first start against winners. The filly has a couple of quick looking works on the morning tab and she comes back here in a rather modest spot tagged for just $10K.

#5 Super Child beat $7.5K non-winners of two last out at the Big M off a 2 1/2 month break. The runner up in that race was Test Notes, who beat $5K non-winners of two in her next start on Dec. 3. The filly owns a solid pace profile throughout and is in good hands with the Jacobson barn that is having a solid meet, hitting at a 22% clip. The bug Serpa picked up a couple of wins on yesterday’s card. The 12/1 ML looks generous.

AQU Race 8 Darlin Momma S. (3:49 ET)
#1 Weathered, #5 Sapphire Sky

#1 Weathered gets some class relief here returning to the NY bred ranks here after taking on graded stakes company in her last two starts. Last out in the Top Flight the mare set the early fractions and faded to finish eighth, finishing 8 1/4 lengths behind the talented Sarah Louise. Our top pick has won 10 of 23 lifetime starts and has done good work on the inner, winning 3 of 6 including the Rare Treat and the Next Move (G3). She looks well spotted here for a sharp barn that is having a frigid meet (0 for 22).
#5 Sapphire Sky stalked the early pace from the inside and finished up well for the runner up spot in the Luv Is Eternal. She could not catch the gate to wire winner Rightly So, who was taking full advantage of a speed friendly racing strip that day. The filly owns a solid pace profile throughout and she seldom runs a bad one.

AQU Race 9 Md $10,000 (4:18 ET)
#8 Classroom Legend, #5 Little Alex, #9 Cantrushperfection

Analysis: #8 Classroom Legend came with a four wide rally and flattened out late in a third place finish for a $20K tag. The runner up in the race was Fortyninegeorgest., who returned to graduate in his next outing for a $15K tag on Jan. 10. The colt still appears to have some upside compared to move of these and is making his third start off the bench. Decent value if we catch most of the 8/1 ML.

#5 Little Alex raced on the same day as our top pick, rallying to finish in the runner up spot for a $12.5K tag, a race that went 2/5′s of a second faster. The gelding was coming off a 2 1/2 month break for the DiPrima barn. Only the morning line chalk earned a higher last out fig. The gelding is a half to stakes winner Supreme Discovery ($221K) who was a fast sprinter, winning 10 of 18 starts.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 3,5,8,9
TRI: 5,8 / 3,5,8,9 / 2,3,5,6,8,9

Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R7: #5 Super Child 12/1
R8: #7 Gold for the Queen 10/1
R9: #8 Classroom Legend 8/1

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