Horse Racing Betting – Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Last Chance Derby Preps

With just three weeks until the Kentucky Derby, most of the 18 runners entered in two key preps on Saturday will need a strong performance to find their way into the starting gate on the first Saturday of May.

The winners of the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland and the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park will earn enough graded stakes earnings to guarantee a spot in the Run for the Roses.

It appears the cut off this year will be around $250,000, meaning there are several talented horses entered in the two races that are on the bubble or just shy of what it takes to get in, and a second or third place finish may be enough to stamp their Derby ticket.

Both races will be nationally televised on NBC as part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” telecast at 5:00 ET.

The Blue Grass drew a field of nine runners who will go nine furlongs over the polytrack surface.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who already has four horses headed to Louisville, could add Interactif and Aikenite to his Derby list.

Interactif is coming off a solid runner up finish in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. The winner of that race was Sidney’s Candy, who returned to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his next start on April 3.

The fourth place finisher in the San Felipe was American Lion, who came back to win the Illinois Derby (G3) on April 3.

Aikenite is making his first start since running third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) behind Eskendereya, who won the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct in his most recent outing.

Pleasant Prince is the 3/1 morning line favorite off his nose loss in the Florida Derby (G1). The colt only has a maiden victory in the win column, but does appear to be on the improve off his big effort in his last start.

The colt has $162,500 in graded earnings, currently 28th on the list.

Odysseus won the photo in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) over Schoolyard Dreams, who was fourth behind Eskendereya in the Wood.

The colt earned $180,000 for his win and that leaves him at 24th on the graded earnings list, and likely needs a top three finish to assure his spot on Derby Day.

Make Music for Me won the Pasadena Stakes on the turf last out at Santa Anita, but that race is ungraded.

The colt did pick up $215,000 in graded earnings as a two year old with a couple of seconds and a fourth, and is 20th on the graded earnings list.

It is a now or never scenario for other promising runners in the race, including Palm Beach Stakes (G3) winner Paddy O’Prado and Florida Derby fifth place finisher First Dude.

Less than 20 minutes after the Blue Grass, there will be $1 million up for grabs in the Arkansas Derby.

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Noble’s Promise, who lost a photo to Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel Stakes (G2) in his last start is the 2/1 morning line favorite.

The colt has earned $708,000 in graded earnings, good for second on the list, meaning his spot in the Kentucky Derby is safe.

Dublin was third in the Rebel, sits at 14th with $273,208, and does not appear to be in danger of losing seven spots between now and the first Saturday of May.

However, for the rest of the field, they need to earn cash if they expect to make it to the gate for the Kentucky Derby.

Uh Oh Bango (23rd), Super Saver (27th), Northern Giant (34th), and Pulsion (38th) need a top two finish to get into the Kentucky Derby, with a third place finish putting them right on the bubble.

There are three in the field with no graded earnings, New Madrid, Berberis, and Line of David. If one of those longshots happens to win the race, it would certainly shake up the list.

For the horses sitting on the bubble, a win by Noble’s Promise would be the best scenario, and the Ken McPeek trainee does look as if he is going to be tough to beat.

The colt had a solid two year old campaign, winning the Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland and finishing a close up third over the Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

The Rebel was his first start on conventional dirt, and the head loss to the 2009 juvenile champion while making his first start in three months gives every indication this colt will be tough, although his pedigree is more sprint oriented, and winning the Kentucky Derby at 1 ¼ miles certainly would be pushing the envelope.

While the two races are the final two serious Derby preps, there are still several opportunities to pick up graded stakes earnings after this weekend.

Next Saturday is the $300,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2), and while coming back in the Kentucky Derby just two weeks later is not ideal, the winner earns $180,000. If the winner already has a few graded earnings in the bank, he could make his way into the top 20.

On April 24, there are two graded stakes, the $150,000 Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct and the $200,000 Cliffs Edge Derby Trial (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Gary Contessa said his talented and quirky three year old Eightfiveinafifty, winner of the $200,000 Bay Shore (G3) at Aqueduct will make his next start in the Derby Trial.

A win in the Derby Trial would likely put the colt into the top 20, and he could be wheeled back off a week rest to start in the Kentucky Derby, according to Contessa.

That could be bad news for whoever comes out of this weekend sitting on the Derby bubble.

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