Horse Picks of the Day from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park

Churchill Downs is back in action this afternoon after a three day hiatus, and the weather will be on the improve at Belmont Park, which saw a off track and a couple of races washed off the turf on Wednesday.

The play of the day comes at Belmont Park, where Australis Princess looks like good value if the three year old filly goes off near her 8/1 morning line.

The key to padding our bankroll in today’s Free Pick 3 play is trying to beat either Little Miss John in the seventh race, or the returning Connie and Michael in the eighth race.

Both runners figure to go off as short priced favorites. The final leg of the Pick 3 is wide open, and we will go four deep trying to catch a price to end the three-race sequence.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Alw $50,000s (4:12 ET)

• #6 Australis Princess 8/1
• #3 Spacy Tracy 2/1
• #5 Kelly’s Pic 4/1
• #8 Settling Seas 6/1

Analysis: #6 Australis Princess pressed the early pace, opened up[ a clear lead on the far turn and weakened in the stretch to finish third last out against $25K non winners of two. The filly was claimed out of the race by the underrated DiPrima barn that is 20% winners first off the claim.

She was a good second two back for a $50K tag and makes her third start off the bench. Worth a good look if we catch most of her 8/1 ML.

#3 Spacy Tracy had to steady in traffic on the first turn and again in the stretch last out, and reportedly bled in the race. She was making her first start for the Ton y D. barn. Blinkers come off today and she figures to be fitter for her second go off the bench for a barn that is 32% winners with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff.

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 3,6 / 3,5,6,8

TRI: 3,6 / 3,5,6,8 / 3,5,6,7,8

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Churchill Downs:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 6,7,8 / 3,5 / 2,5,6,10 = $24

CD Race 7 Clm $30,000N3L (3:57 ET)

#8 Mis Pardner Rules, #6 Little Miss Julien, #7 Missy Lou

#8 Mis Pardner Rules dueled for the early lead, took over the lead and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish against open $40K claimers. Three back at Fair Grounds this gal was a good looking winner versus $30K non winners of three in a race taken off the turf.

Three she beat that day came back to win their next starts. She has run okay on turf, breaking her maiden over the Colonial Downs turf course last summer.

#6 Little Miss Julien is coming off a sharp win versus $20K non winners of two last out at Gulfstream Park on the turf. The five year old mare has landed in the exacta in 3 of 5 trips on the lawn and makes her third start of her current form cycle for the Ward barn.

CD Race 8 Alw $50,000N1X (4:29 ET)

#3 Lady Etienne, #5 Connie and Michael

#3 Lady Etienne caught a muddy track last out, dueling for the early lead and unable to hang with the winner late in a runner up finish. The mare was 5 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She beat $30K non winners of two in her previous outing at Keeneland over the poly.

She broke her maiden over the main track here back in ’08 and appears to have some upside as she may catch a fast main track for the first time since her seventh place finish off the long layoff three back.

#5 Connie and Michael makes her first start since last fall where she was third in the Miesque (G3) on turf.

She made her first two career starts on the fake stuff, breaking her maiden in her debut, and then checking in eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

She popped a bullet work over the main track here, but is making her first start on dirt off nearly a six month break at less than even money. Tough to get excited about backing her at that price.

BEL Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (4:45 ET)

#1 Lemon Spice, #3 Eighttofasttocatch, #4 Carson Hall, #7 Prussian

#1 Lemon Spice returns off a seven week break and drops into an easier spot after taking on Grade 3 foes last out. The gelding won a pair of turf races at Gulfstream Park early this year, winning a $50K claimer and a conditioned allowance race.

He fits well here as he makes his first start for the Brown barn that is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn.

#3 Eighttofasttocatch might be too fast to catch here as the gelding really is the lone speed signed up. The gelding beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out after setting moderate early fractions for his first career win on turf. He makes his second start off a six month break and if he can shake loose early here he may prove tough to catch.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

• R2: #2 Appledore 12/1
• R4: #8 My Man Jake 8/1
• R7: #6 Australis Princess 8/1
• R8: #3 Eighttofasttocatch 15/1
• R9: #6 Showme Zealous 12/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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