Horse Pick of the Day – Santa Anita Race 9 Grade II San Simeon Handicap

Santa Anita Park is a great place for horseplayers to find overlaid horse bets because of both the main track, which is a Pro-Ride surface, and the turf track.

Race-day: 4/17/2010
Race-time: 7:38 pm EST

At Santa Anita Park, often times the best overlays can be found in races down Santa Anita’s turf hill course. Because of the layout of the downhill turf course, speed becomes very important but is often times overlooked because of the belief that closers do better on turf.

Hopefully, I’ve found that speed horse that figures to win the San Simeon easily this Saturday.

Santa Anita – Race 9

Grade II San Simeon Stakes

$100,000

For Four Year Olds and Upward

6 ½ furlongs downhill turf

Mr. Gruff – - 9/5 fair online betting odds

Sure, there’s a chance that Mr. Gruff goes off as the favorite in this race, but because Ever A Friend is the name horse that has won a Grade I, I believe that Mr. Gruff will go off as the second choice. To me, that makes him an overlay. There is absolutely no other speed in this race and anybody who saw his victory in his last, an optional claiming $80,000 allowance, where he just drew off as soon as jockey Joel Rosario asked him to knows that he’s a serious player in this. Mr. Gruff should lead gate to wire with ease. He’s 4 and 1 out of 5 races on the downhill turf and that 2nd place finish was by a nose.

Ever A Friend – - 8/5 fair online betting odds

Anything above even money on this guy makes him an overlay in my book in this race. He should simply outclass most of his rivals in this and figures to be the only one who can touch Mr. Gruff in the lane. The only issue is that Ever A Friend will have to work extra hard because there is no other speed outside of Mr. Gruff in this race. I believe he leaves the rest of this field in his wake, but doesn’t quite get to Mr. Gruff at the finish line. Still, he’s a super solid choice to round out the exacta. Ever A Friend has won 3 out of 4 on the downhill turf making the Grade I winner the legitimate favorite in this race.

Canonize – - 4/1 fair online betting odds

The son of Aldebaran tries the turf for the first time. Like Mr. Gruff, he’s trained by Ron Ellis. Unlike Mr. Gruff, Canonize figures to lie about 4 lengths off of the pace before making a run. I don’t believe he’s quite good enough to get to either Ever A Friend or Mr. Gruff but he’s definitely good enough to round out the trifecta. He might add some value underneath.

Wagering Strategy

I’m going to bet Mr. Gruff to win. I will also bet a big exacta with Mr. Gruff over Ever A Friend. I will reverse the exacta for less. I will bet a trifecta with Mr. Gruff and Ever Friend in the first two slots over Canonize and Cherokee Heaven in the third slot.

Good luck!

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