Horse Pick of the Day – Hollywood Park Race 8

Race-day: 6/11/2009

Race-time: 7:38 pm est.

Racing at Hollywood Park always affords BetOnline Racebook fans plenty of overlay betting opportunities.

The key is to find which overlay betting opportunities are better than others. By going to maiden races, horseplayers are sure to find something that makes sense because facts regarding maidens are easy to see. Some trainers are good with maidens. Others are not.

Let’s take a look at Race 8 at Hollywood Park on Thursday night.

Hollywood Park – Race 8

Maiden Claiming $40,000

For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old

5 ½ furlongs on cushion track

Sam’s Special – - 6/1 morning line

Sam’s Special was just horrid in her first start. Going 4 ½ furlongs in a $46,000 state bred maiden special weight race, Sam’s Special had trouble doing anything right and ended up losing by 16 lengths. Well, things figure to change in this race. She goes first time for trainer Jeff Mullins, drops into a $40,000 maiden claimer and will go into this with if not great works, then steady works. Mullins is 25% first time and 34% 1st time maiden claiming. Oh, Garret Gomez takes the call which means Mullins is looking to win this race.

Bye Bye Hollywood – - 8/1 morning line

Speed and fade in her first start means that she could very well improve enough to take these gate to wire. Trainer David La Croix is only 14% second time out but his ROI is 1.83. That’s pretty good and there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of other speed in this. She could be a nice surprise on Thursday.

Saturn Moon – - 3/1 morning line

The likely chalk ran a bang up race going 2 furlongs in her second start but when she stretched out to 4 ½ she not only didn’t get the lead but she finished 3rd by 4 ½ lengths. She also ran the worst speed rating of her life. Will she be able to turn things around? Well, she is the fastest horse on paper but where is the improvement going to come from? Both Bye Bye Hollywood and Sam’s Special figure to improve. I’m not sure if Saturn Moon does.

Wagering Strategy

I’m going to bet Sam’s Special to win and place. I will also put a small saver bet on Bye Bye Hollywood to win. I will put Sam’s Special, Bye Bye Hollywood and Saturn Moon into an exacta box.