Horse Pick of the Day – Gearing up for the Derby

Keeneland showcases another graded race on a weekday this Friday with the Grade III Double Dog Dare Stakes.

Soon, Keeneland will hand over the reigns of Kentucky racing to Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby.  But in the mean time they will continue to run graded stakes races that provide nice overlay wagering opportunities for gamblers.

Let’s analyze Race 9 at Keeneland on Friday.

Keeneland – Race 9

Grade III Double Dog Dare

$100,000

For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Up

1 1/16th miles on Polytrack

Drop A Line – - 8/1 morning line odds

As if going from turf to all weather for trainer Graham Motion, a 26% winning move, weren’t enough, Drop A Line has excellent form at both Keeneland and on all weather surfaces.  At Keeneland, Drop A Line is 2 out of 2 in the money with a victory and a third.  On all weather surfaces, Drop A Line has 3 wins a second and a third in 5 races.  She’s the pick at what figures to be very nice odds.

Indescribable – - 5/2 morning line odds

Horseplayers will be lucky to get 5/2 on this daughter of  Pleasant Tap.  She too has excellent form at Keeneland with a victory and 2 seconds out of 3 lifetime starts.  Here all weather form is just as good with 3 wins and 2 seconds out of 7 lifetime starts.  The kicker is the fact she’s fast and gets Kent Desormeaux to take the call.  She’s going to be very chalky in this.

Serenading – - 9/2 morning line odds

She’s coming off of a layoff for trainer Josie Carroll which isn’t a winning move, but her form at Woodbine, which is a Polytrack surface like Keeneland, is exceptional.  She has 5 wins, 4 seconds, and a third out of 11 races on the Polytrack at Woodbine.  That makes her a player in this race.  Here speed ratings have been very good of late and she’s coming into this off of a victory in a $100,000 restricted stakes.

Wagering Strategy

Drop A Line should keep her odds which means she is an automatic bet to win and place.  I will put her into exacta and trifecta boxes with Serenading and Indescribable.