Horse Pick of the Day: Churchill Downs Race 9

A lot of times BetOnline online racebook fans might shy away from betting Churchill Downs after the Kentucky Derby.

Our minds inevitably turn towards the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, both of which occur at tracks other than Churchill. It would be a mistake to just forget about Churchill altogether, though, as on most weekdays, Churchill provides some of the best racing available.

Let’s take a look at Race 9 at Churchill Downs on Friday.

Churchill Downs – Race 9

Optional Claiming $80,000 n$y

For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won $7,500 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming, or Starter, or Which Have Never Won Three Races or Claiming Price $80,000

5 furlongs on turf

Aronia – - 5/1 morning line

Sunny skies and temperatures of 80 degrees are expected tomorrow in Louisville which means that this race won’t be taken off of the turf. It’s a good thing because the one horse with the best turf experience is the Brett Calhoun trained Aronia. Aronia’s record is pretty good as she’s won 7 times with a second and a third out of 15 lifetime starts. That makes her in the money percentage at 60% and her win percentage at 47%. Not bad for a horse. She also gets the outside draw, is coming off of a layoff, and is good off of a layoff, and should be closing into what’s expected to be a very fast pace. She gets the nod in this.

Bambolina – - 7/2 morning line

The daughter of War Chant just won on this turf course and at this distance in her last. She gets Julien Leparoux to take the call once again and what she lacks in speed, she makes up for in class. She could be closer to the pace than Aronia and it could work against her or help her cause. She’s a serious player in this.

Simply Seattle – - 6/1 morning line

Her running line isn’t awful with 2 victories, 4 seconds and 4 thirds out of 16 lifetime races and she should be on the lead. She’s the key to the race. If she goes as fast as expected than some of the favorites, like She’s Extreme and Koka Kola Kitty, will have to go with her, setting up both Bambolina and Aronia. That’s probably what’s going to happen as Simply Seattle has one shot to win, and that’s stealing it on the front end. If she does her job, then Aronia and Bambolina becomes even likelier winners.

Wagering Strategy

I’ll bet Aronia to win and place. I will also put Aronia, Simply Seattle and Bambolina into an exacta and trifecta box.