Hornets at Nuggets – Billups and Paul in a Battle of Points

The New Orleans Hornets (49-33 SU, 35-45-2 ATS, 34-46-2 O/U) and Denver Nuggets (54-28 SU, 44-37-1 ATS, 42-40 O/U) will each be looking to pick up an SU and ATS win in the BetOnline Sportsbook when they get their 2008-09 postseason started tonight at 10:30 PM ET at the Pepsi Center.

The Western Conference rivals played their regular season series to a 2-2 tie while New Orleans has gone 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests against Denver.

New Orleans went just 1-4 SU and won only twice in its last eight regular season games coming into the postseason, losing each of its final two regular season contests including a 105-98 overtime loss to San Antonio as 9-point road underdogs in its regular season finale.

While the Denver Nuggets (54-28 SU, 44-37-1 ATS, 42-40 O/U) dropped two of their final three regular season games, they won eight consecutive games prior to that and two of the last three meetings against the Hornets while covering the spread each time.

Denver dropped its final regular season game playing its reserves in a 104-76 rout at the hand of the Portland Trailblazers as 8.5-point road underdogs.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Hornets are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog.

The Nuggets are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Denver.

The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

NBA Odds

New Orleans Hornets +6½ -110

Denver Nuggets -6½ -110

Over 194½ -110

Under 194½ -110

Analysis: While I am a bit leery of the point spread in this contest, I

Genuinely believe the Denver Nuggets are going to cover the spread with just a bit of wiggle room as the Hornets are playing some pretty poor basketball coming into the postseason, having lost four of its last five and six of its last eight regular season games.

Despite this being a postseason game, I like the Over to play out between these ballclubs for the fourth time in the last six meetings.

NBA Free Picks: Nuggets -6½ Points/Over 194½ Total Points