Handicapping Horses from Belmont Park – Friday’s Winning Ticket

The handicapping puzzle in New York gets a bit trickier today, with the first two year old turf race of the season on tap.

A field of ten two year old fillies will go six furlongs on the turf course, and none of the runners in the race has started.

That makes for a fun race to handicap, as we only have the connections and the pedigree to go on.

Not to worry.

We unearthed a nicely bred filly that was a $200,000 purchase that happens to be in the care of a hall of fame trainer. In addition, she is a half sister to a multiple turf stakes winner by the name of Gaviola.

She is my top pick in today’s play of the day:

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 4 Md Sp Wt (4:30 ET)

#3 Key Quality 5/2

#9 Pretty B 5/1

#1 Raise the Kitty / #1a Dad’s Crazy 7/2

#2 Lisa’s Kitten / #2b Jill’s Kitten 6/1

Analysis: #3 Key Quality is a $200K Keeneland purchase making her debut for the Mott barn that is on the light side with firsters, hitting at a 6% clip. With first time starters on the turf over the past three years, the barn has hit at a 12% clip. The filly is by Elusive Quality out of a Green Forest mare that has dropped six foals to race, four winners including three grass winners. The top earner is grass stakes winner Gaviola ($589K) who won 8 of 16 on the turf in her career. She has several quick works on the morning tab and looks ready to fire here.

#9 Pretty B is a $165K Keeneland purchase, a good number for an offspring of Matty G, about twice the average. She is out of the Carson City mare Pretty City, who has dropped a couple of turf winners, top earner stakes winner Lear’s Princess ($491K). The Hough barn is good with two year olds over the years and hits at a 13% clip overall with first time starters.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 3,9 / 1,2,3,9

TRI: 3,9 / 1,2,3,9 / 1,2,3,4,9

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 2,5 / 1,2,5,10 / 3,7,9 = $24

BEL Race 7 Alw $50,000s (4:12 ET)

#5 Lost Without You, #2 Wishful Star

#5 Lost Without You came up the inside with a mild late bid to finish third last out against Alw-1 foes in a highly graded race. The winner Girlfriendontheside returned to win the $60K Crank It Up at Monmouth Park on 6/28. The runner up and sixth place finisher also came out of the race to win next out. The filly makes her third start off the bench and looks like she will be tough here. She crossed the wire first in a restricted stake last fall over the turf here only to get DQ’d for ducking in. #2 Wishful Star beat $35K non-winners of two last out despite clipping heels and stumbling at the start. The effort was flattered when the runner up and third place finisher both came back to win their next starts. She showed little until Penna took over and moved her to sprints on the grass. The barn has been sending out live runners at the meet, hitting at a 33% clip and Maragh is 3 for 7 riding for the trainer at the meet.

BEL Race 8 Alw $45,000N1X (6:36 ET)

#2 Fateh Field, #10 Winthrop House, #1 Great Emperor / #1a The Truffle Man, #5 Karakorum Elektra

#2 Fateh Field gets the nod here as the $500K buy is making his U.S. debut off a 5 1/2 month layoff. The gelding was facing mostly tougher overseas and was a good second in the listed Doncaster Stakes at six furlongs on the turf. The only problem is that effort came way back in ’07. He has been in the mix in most of his starts, but his three local works are not giving us much in the way of clues as to whether this guy is ready to fire off the bench. The barn is 10% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. It is not a real deep field of first level allowance runners here in this spot.

#10 Winthrop House is making his first start since last November for the McLaughlin barn that is 19% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The colt broke his maiden two back in his first go on turf, which came at seven furlongs. I like the pedigree, by More Than Ready out of a stakes placed Polish Numbers mare.

BEL Race 9 Alw $43,000N1X (7:08 ET)

#7 Woodrunner, #3 Burnished Copper, #9 Joey’s Chance

#7 Woodrunner returns off a two month break for the Tagg barn and this gelding looks the best in here but he also looked pretty good last four starts against NY breds but was the beaten fav in three of those outings. Last out the gelding stalked the early pace, split runners and opened up in the stretch but ran out of steam and checked in third, beaten two lengths for the top spot. The winner of the race was Kutais, who came back to beat NY bred Alw-2 optional claimers in his next start and then was a good second in the NY bred Do It Fast on 7/8. The gelding is a half to a couple of stakes winners, top earner Run With the Lark ($261K). One more shot here but not expecting to see much of a price again.

#3 Burnished Copper was a smart looking maiden winner last out but it took 14 tries to earn his diploma, not the type I usually like to back as they try winners for the first time. But he makes his third start off the bench and this is not a very tough looking spot here.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #1 French Transition / #1a One Starry Nite 15/1

R2: #1 Smart Selection 8/1

R2: #4 Leoroel 12/1

R5: #7 Psychotic Summer 10/1

R9: #8 Munition 10/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!