Half a Point Makes Jets the AFC Sports Betting Pick vs. Pitt

A measly ½ a point is what’s forcing me to make the New York Jets my AFC football betting pick against the spread in Sunday’s game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.  I guess, if the ½ a point is really the difference, then I can’t exactly call it measly, now can I?

To me, the Steelers and Jets are incredibly close in terms of talent.  Because of that, any edge a football handicapper can get in the game is an edge worth taking.  A ½ a point in the AFC Championship is a huge edge, in my opinion.   

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New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

Where:  Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

When:  Jan. 23rd, 2011 at 6:30 pm EST

TV:  FOX

NFL Against the Spread Betting Line

New York Jets                         -3 ½ -110       

Pittsburgh Steelers                    +3 ½ -110      

Check out some ATS betting trends for this game.

• The New York Jets are 7 and 1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• The New York Jets are 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8 and 1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The trends give the Jets a solid chance to be the AFC sports betting team to cover the spread in the AFC Championship game this Sunday.  There’s no doubt about that.  Are their any stats for either team that helps make the cause for the Jets as well?

I believe that their might be.  NYJ’s D has been straight up awesome since giving up 38 points to Chicago in a 34 to 38 loss in Week 16.  It’s almost like coach Rex Ryan flipped a switch or something.  The Jets’ D allowed the Buffalo Bills to rack up 162 total yards and only 7 points in a 38 to 7 victory in Week 17.  Then, in the Wildcard Round, the Jets held QB Peyton Manny of the Indianapolis Colts to only 225 passing yards and a single TD pass.  Last week, in the Divisional Round game versus the New England Patriots, the Jets’ held soon to be MVP of the league Tom Brady to 299 passing yards, only 2 TD passes and an interception.

To make the case even more for the Jets to be the AFC sports betting pick to win the conference championship is the fact that J-E-T-S beat Pittsburgh 22 to 17 the last time the two teams played and that the Jets now sport the #3 ranked D in the league versus the run at 90.9 yards allowed on the ground per contest and the 6th ranked D in the league overall at 291.4 yards per game allowed.

Pittsburgh has a decent defense as well.  Pittsburgh’s D gives up only 62.8 yards per game on the ground.  That’s #1 in the NFL.  They’re not great versus the pass, however, allowing 214.1 yards per game, but can the Jets’ QB, Mark Sanchez, exploit it?  He could, but that’s not the reason to love the Jets versus the AFC sports betting odds in this game.

The reason to really love NYJ to cover the spread in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 23rd, is because of that half a point.  If the odds go down to Pittsburgh -3 or less, then Pitt might actually be the team to back, but at +3 ½, there’s just no way that I can go with Pittsburgh.  I envision the teams being tied in the final 2 minutes and Big Ben driving the Steelers down to the 35 yards line with only 12 seconds left, getting it to the 25 on a pass to Rashard Mendenhall out of the backfield, and then setting it up for a Shaun Suisham game winning field goal.

I can’t let the half a point beat me.  I’m taking the points on the Jets in the AFC Championship Game on January 23rd.

AFC Championship Betting Pick:  New York Jets +3 ½

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