Green Bay vs. Detroit Could Be The Game of the Year. Yes, Really.

Green Bay vs. Detroit Clash for Thanksgiving Pro Football

For the first time in years the Thanksgiving game in the Motor City will be meaningful as the undefeated 10-0 Green Bay Packers take on the hot 7-3 Detroit Lions. 

Green Bay is ready to roll into the NFL Playoffs as a solid favorite to repeat last season’s Super Bowl victory while Detroit is ready to make a statement to non-believers that they are indeed a force in the NFC. From a wagering perspective, the Green Bay versus Detroit game on Nov. 24 could be a boon to the bottom line.

Keep reading for an analysis of this Thursday’s huge Thanksgiving matchup!

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

When:  Nov. 24, 2011 at 12:30 pm EST

Where:  Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

NFL Betting Line:  Green Bay -6, Total 55

Green Bay Packers

Offense

Green Bay sports one of the best offenses in the NFL. The 406.5 yards per game ranks 4th in the NFL, the 304.9 passing yards per game ranks 3rd, and the 35.5 points per game average ranks 1st. It all starts with QB Aaron Rodgers who has thrown for 31 touchdowns and 3,168 yards as opposed to only 4 interceptions.  Rodgers’s QB rating on the season is an incredible 128.8 making him the easiest of choices to win the NFL MVP this season.  Green Bay is somewhat weak, however, in the running game. The Packers rank 21st in the NFL with only 101.6 yards per game on the ground.

Defense

Green Bay’s defense is what NFL watchers point to when making the case that the Packers will not repeat as Super Bowl champs this season. As opposed to last season when the Packers’ D appeared to dominate opponents at the line of scrimmage, this year’s D just isn’t living up to the hype. The Packers are ranked 30th in total defense in the NFL, giving up an alarming 391.8 yards per game. 289.3 of those 391.8 yards occur through the air meaning that Green Bay’s future hall-of-fame cornerback, Charles Woodson, is showing his age. Green Bay allows 21.2 points per game, 14th in the NFL.

Detroit Lions

Offense

Unlike past seasons, this season’s Detroit Lions’ offense is on par with Green Bay’s.  Detroit, with Matthew Stafford under center and Calvin “Megatron” Johnson at wide receiver, averages an awesome 373.5 yards per game, 272.4 through the air, and 30.1 points per game. Detroit’s offense, like Green Bay’s, lacks a true running game as the Lions are averaging only 101.1 yards per game on the ground.

Defense

A case can be made that the Lions have a better defense than Green Bay does.  Detroit’s defense is ranked 9th in the NFL. It allows only 327.5 yards per game on average. Through the air, it allows only 192.8 yards per game on average. The Lions’ D is weak against the run, however, giving up 134.7 yards per game on the ground.

Green Bay vs Detroit Betting Analysis:  This is going to be Green Bay’s biggest test of the season. When the Packers took on Chicago in Week 3, the Bears hadn’t yet hit their stride. Green Bay actually had a difficult time against New Orleans in Week 1, in a  42 to 34 victory, Carolina in Week 2, in a 30 to 23 victory, Minnesota in Week 7, in a 33 to 27 victory, San Diego in Week 9, in a 45 to 38 victory, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just last week in a 35 to 26 victory.

Detroit’s offense is much better than Carolina’s, Minnesota’s and Tampa Bay’s and it might be better than San Diego’s. Although there is a chance that Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford could suffer a negative bounce this Thursday, he threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns in last Sunday’s victory over Carolina. The fact that this is a Thanksgiving Day game gives me hope that Stafford will come up big. I believe that Detroit is a great wager at +6 to cover the spread against the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 24 in pro football action.

I also feel that Detroit will have to score points in order to do it. Green Bay has no shot of stopping the Lions’ passing game while the Lions’, although very good against the pass based on stats, will get burned when they try and blitz Aaron Rodgers.  I like the game to go over the gargantuan Total of 55. 

ATS Pick:  Detroit +6
Total Pick:  Over 55

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