Green Bay is a Tough Football Betting Pick vs. Patriots

With or without QB Aaron Rodgers under center, the Green Bay Packers are a tough football betting pick to cover the spread versus the New England Patriots on Sunday, Dec. 19th.

Rodgers suffered a concussion in Green Bay’s 3 to 7 loss to the Detroit Lions last Sunday as -7 point road favorites.  Rodgers got hurt early in that game.  So, it’s obvious that the Packers just aren’t very good on offense without AR under center.

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But it doesn’t matter this Sunday whether or not Rodgers is cleared to play.  Why?  Because the New England Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL and I just don’t see the Packers, especially with a still cloudy headed Rodgers throwing the ball, being close to the Pats on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers (8-5) at New England Patriots (11-2)

Where:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

When:  Dec. 19th, 2010 at 8:20 pm EST

TV:  NBC

Radio:  Sirius-XM  125 (GB)  126 (NE) 

Game Preview

It’s almost impossible to be cleared to play in an NFL game only a week after suffering a concussion.  The football betting odds are most likely going to reflect that because, technically, GB doesn’t have to give up Rodgers’ status until about 24 hours before the game goes off.

The Indianapolis Colts are notorious for holding back info until the last second.  I’m not sure why Green Bay wouldn’t do that either.  Green Bay, in fact, came out and said that they wouldn’t make a decision regarding Rodgers’ status until this Saturday. That doesn’t give handicappers a lot of time in which to make a decision regarding this game.

That’s why I’m making my decision right now.  Whether Rodgers plays or not, I’m backing the Patriots to cover the spread in this game. 

Let’s check some trends.

• The Green Bay Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Green Bay Packers are 5 and 2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The New England Patriots are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The New England Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

The Green Bay Packers’ D has been much better lately.  The Packers are now ranked 9th in defense and 3rd against the pass but they’re still up against it football betting wise in this game.

The Packers’ D faces the best offense in the NFL, in my opinion.  The Patriots only rack up 363.2 yards per game, that’s 8th in the NFL, but they score 31.9 points per game.  That’s first 1st in the NFL.  What’s more impressive is the fact that the Patriots have scored 30 points or more in each of their last 5 games.  With Tom Brady playing as well as any QB has in maybe the history of the league this season, the Patriots have scored 39 points versus Pittsburgh, 31 versus Indy, 45 versus both Detroit and the New York Jets and 36 versus Chicago in their last 5 games.

The thing that has to worry GB is the fact that New England has outscored their last 2 opponents, the Jets and Bears, 81 to 10.  They beat the Bears 36 to 7 in a snowstorm in Soldier Field.  Brady threw for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns in the snow and on the road versus one of the best defenses in the NFL.

That’s why I’m so confident in stating that the New England Patriots will cover the football betting spread in this game whether or not Aaron Rodgers plays.  In fact, I’m so confident that I’m willing to back the Patriots to cover the spread with Rodgers under center for GB at New England -13 ½ or less.

If Rodgers can’t play and the Packers start QB Matt Flynn, then I’ll back the Patriots at -16 ½ points or less to cover the spread.  That’s how much confidence I have in the Patriots versus a Green Bay team traveling to New England to face them.

 NFL Betting Pick:  New England Patriots to cover the spread

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