Going Over in the Fourth – Portland at San Antonio

Going Over In The Fourth: Portland Trail blazers at San Antonio Spurs

Another big night tonight in the NBA, with two nationally televised games drawing extra attention. Those games are Portland at San Antonio and Utah at Dallas. The BetOnline sportsbook is giving you extra betting opportunities on both those games, with spreads, moneylines and totals for each quarter. Also, Portland at San Antonio will feature live betting, which you don’t want to miss.

That’s a lot of potential action to wade through, so I figured I’d help you with your homework. My pick of the day features 4th quarter totals action on the Blazers-Spurs game. Here’s the totals betting line, the raw numbers you need to know, some analysis, and finally, your pick of the day:

4th Quarter Totals Line:

• 44.5 O/U -115 

4th Quarter Totals – Numbers You Need to Know:

• The Blazers are averaging 25.6pts in the 4th quarter over the entire season.
• The Spurs are giving up an average of 22.8pts in the 4th quarter over the entire season.

• The Spurs are averaging 23.6pts in the 4th quarter over the entire season.
• The Blazers are giving up an average of 23.4pts in the 4th quarter over the entire season.

• The Blazers are averaging 26.1pts on the road in the 4th quarter.
• The Spurs are giving up an average of 22.9pts at home in the 4th quarter.

• The Spurs are averaging 23.7pts at home in the 4th quarter.
• The Blazers are giving up an average of 23.5pts on the road in the 4th quarter.

• In their previous three meetings this season, the Spurs and the Blazers have combined for 145pts in the 4th “q”. That’s an average 4th quarter total of 48.3pts.

Analysis:  Looking at the overall numbers (no adjustment for away/home), the Blazers should score 24.2pts against the Spurs in the 4th, while the Spurs should score 23.5pts. I got those numbers by averaging what the Blazers score and what the Spurs give up, and vice versa. Add those two numbers together and you get a total of around 48pts (47.7 to be exact). If we adjust and use the away/home numbers, we have the Blazers scoring an average of 24.5pts, while the Spurs figure to net 23.6pts, giving us around 48pts again (actually 48.1). The totals line for the fourth is only 44.5, leaving a 3.5pt gap between what the numbers say and what the bookmakers say. That difference is very significant. The last thing is to check our numbers against what Portland and San Antonio have already done this season. They have matched up three times with fourth quarter totals of 51, 46 and 48. That’s 3-0 on the over, and again, an average of 48pts. Over, anyone? Thought so.

Pick of the day:

• OVER 44.5 -115 (4th quarter total, Blazers at Spurs)