Gearing up for the Kentucky Derby – Coolmore Lexington Stakes

With several candidates dropping off the Kentucky Derby Trail, today’s $300,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland may not have much of a bearing on who gets a starting berth on the first Saturday of May.

Square Eddie is the morning line favorite in the Lexington, and already is assured of a starting berth in the Derby, as he sits among the top five three year olds in graded stakes earnings.

The winner of the Lexington earns $186,000, which would be good enough to crack the top twenty. However, unless we see an electrifying performance, the winner will not be among the Derby favorites.

El Crespo, looks like a live longshot coming into the race off a win in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) on turf and has $90,000 in graded stakes earnings.

A first or second place finish would earn him a ticket to the Derby, but trainer Rusty Arnold said it is likely his colt would probably return to turf.

It will be asking a lot for these runners to come back in two weeks, but that is the plan for Square Eddie according to his trainer Doug O’Neill.

Whether or not the Lexington produces a Derby starter or two, it looks like a fantastic race to wager on in the online racebook.

Keeneland Race 9 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) Post time 5:40 ET)

#6 Masala 6/1

#9 El Crespo 10/1

#10 Parade Clown 15/1

#8 Square Eddie 9/5

#6 Masala exits the G3 Gotham, which was won by I Want Revenge, who ran huge that day, earning a 113 Beyer and then returned to win the G1 Wood in his next outing on April 4. Our top pick was beaten a dozen lengths but did not have the best of trips. The colt raced in traffic leaving the first turn, came four wide at the quarter pole and ran out of gas. Two back the colt was off a step slow in a runner up finish versus Alw-1 foes. The winner of that race was Take the Points, who returned to finish second in the G3 Sham and fourth in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher adds blinkers to the mix as he makes his third start of his current form cycle. The colt has a easy breeze over the poly and this guy still appears to have some upside potential.

#9 El Crespo has done his best running on turf, taking the G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream Park in his last outing. The third place finisher in that race was Stormalory, who returned to win the G3 Translyvania at Keeneland in his next start on April 3. The colt sports a nice pedigree, by A.P. Indy out of a Private Account mare that has dropped stakes winners Rey de Café ($302K) and Tricky Causeway ($255K). This guy is worth a good look here if we see most of his 10/1 ML.

#10 Parade Clown was in the mix in three stakes at Turfway on poly, a win in the WEBN then a second in the Battaglia and a fourth in the G2 Lane’s End, beaten 6 ¼ lengths in his last start. The winner of the Lane’s End was Hold Me Back, who came back to run a good second in the G1 Blue Grass in his next outing on April 11. The blinkers come off and at least we know this guy knows how to win on poly. Leparoux takes over as Coa sticks with our top pick, which is no surprise.

#8 Square Eddie is the most highly regarded in here but the colt is going to take too much attention at the windows. He was a good second last out in the G3 San Rafael behind The Pamplemousse, who came back to win the G3 Sham in his next start on February 28.He was put on the shelf with a minor injury and seemed to be off the Derby Trail. The colt has enough graded earnings to make it into the Derby, which does not make this race a make or break affair. The colt won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity over the poly here last fall. His best makes him tough to beat but there are a few others in here that are going to offer better value for the top spot.

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 4/1 or better. A win bet on #9 to win at 5/1 or better.

EX: 6,9 / 6,8,9,10

TRI: 6,9 / 6,8,9,10 / 1,6,8,9,10,11

Good luck padding your bankroll today!