Game Day Pick – San Jose State at Stanford Cardinals

San Jose State Spartans (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Stanford Cardinal (1-1 SU & ATS)

Saturday, September 19 – 9 PM ET

BetOnline NCAA Betting Odds: STANFORD -17, Total 46.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• SJSU has covered one of its last seven games
• SJSU has lost its last five games SU
• SJSU has covered two of its last six road games
• SJSU has lost 18 of its last 25 road games SU
• SJSU has played nine of its last 12 road games UNDER the total
• STAN has covered four of its last six games
• STAN has lost four of its last five games SU
• STAN has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• STAN has covered its last six home games
• STAN has won five of its last six home games SU
• STAN has lost 18 of its last 25 home games SU
• STAN has played 12 of its last 18 home games UNDER the total

Also….

• STAN has won and covered six of the last seven meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• STAN has won and covered the last five meetings as the home team
• Four of the last five meetings in Palo Alto have gone UNDER the total

Stanford looked real good for one half of football against Wake Forest last weekend, pulling out to a 17-3 lead and seeming very fresh. Then they went flat in the second 30 minutes, allowing the Demon Deacons to score three unanswered touchdowns to complete the 24-17 victory with a couple of seconds to go, blowing the cover in the NCAA betting odds.

On balance it was not a bad performance by Stanford’s freshman quarterback, Andrew Luck, who completed 23 of 34 passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns. Toby Gerhart rushed for 82 yards. Now they have to travel back across the country and get ready for a team that should be fired up for this geographical rivalry.

I admit that I did expect more out of San Jose State in their season opener against USC, but evidently they did not have enough to deal with the slew of running backs USC can throw at a team, and after getting out to a 3-0 lead gave up 56 points. A conversion rate of one-for-16 on third down was unacceptable, however.

Last week SJSU was able to come back and fight tooth-and-nail with a Utah team that had won 14 games in a row, and they got an unexpected effort out of reserve quarterback Jordan LaScala, who came in and completed 21 passes for 242 yards and has been named the starter over Kyle Reed this week.

Of great concern to the Spartans is the running game, which gained only 2.7 yards a carry last year but has just 31 net yards this season. Brandon Rutley has an ankle injury, while Patrick Perry, the other primary back, is banged up as well. San Jose State has surrendered 593 rushing yards thus far, which makes for an interesting disparity that never bodes well for teams trying to overcome the NCAA betting odds.

San Jose State used to be super-tough in this game (now called the “Bill Walsh Legacy Game”) because it was of key recruiting importance for them, but the Cardinal has won and covered six of the last seven meetings in the NCAA betting odds. Four of Stanford’s wins in this series have been by three touchdowns or more. San Jose coach Dick Tomey is searching for answers, but they either won’t be there or could disappear quickly. We’re going to lay the points with Stanford, the 17-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: Stanford -17 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)