Furious Super Bowl XLV Predictions – Steelers Are Too Tempting To Ignore

There’s something about making a Super Bowl XLV prediction between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers that just feels right. Maybe it’s because the Pittsburgh Steelers have won the most Lombardi Trophies in NFL history. Perhaps it’s that the Lombardi Trophy derives its namesake from one of Green Bay’s best coaches ever.

It probably has more to do with the fact that there are no two teams that seem more deserving.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers have overcome so much this season. By going 12-4 SU this season, they were the second best team in the AFC and also finished with a very satisfying 10-6 ATS record for their betting detractors. It seemed unfathomable that they’d be one of the choices in Super Bowl XLV predictions, especially since Ben Roethlisberger missed the first four games of the season.

But the defense stepped up in a big way, and that’s one of the many reasons why Troy Polamalu was named the AP Defensive Player of the Year. Though he’s flanked by an absurd amount of pro bowl worthy players, Polamalu helped lead a defense ranked first in rushing defense (62.8 yards allowed) and points surrendered (14.5), while having a reasonable pass defense.

Suspensions, fines, injuries to the offensive line and questions about the team’s resolve were all answered. At every turn and twist of the windy road, the Steelers were faced with adversity and overcame it. That’s why it’s almost unfathomable that the oddsmakers would skew Super Bowl XLV predictions by making them the underdogs and actually giving them a handicap.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Sunday, February 6th — Cowboys Stadium — 6:15pm EST

Super Bowl XLV Betting Line: Green Bay -2.5 (44.5)

The biggest reason that Green Bay is favored, and garnering plenty of traction in Super Bowl XLV predictions, is simply because their greatest strength is the Pittsburgh Steelers’ biggest weakness.

Aaron Rodgers ascended to elite statue this season, and led a passing offense which ranked 5th in the league with 258.0 passing yards. Doing that without his favorite target – Jermichael Finley – was a tough task at the beginning of the season, but the Packers are almost unstoppable in the passing game. Rodgers is too accurate, too quick with his release and too daring to fully go against at this point in the season.

The Packers are peaking, and the receiving corps is answer the call. Led by the franchise’s all-time leading receiver, Donald Driver, the receivers in Green Bay can run all the routes, make tough catches and gain yards after the catch. How Green Bay ended up with four or five receivers that can do everything extremely well is a huge reason why Green Bay is getting the love in early Super Bowl XLV predictions.

Truth be told, Pittsburgh’s Polamalu can only be in one place at a time and if Green Bay decides to spread the field, it will be up to the Pittsburgh pass rush to stifle any offense that Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers try to produce. I would not underestimate the ability of Pittsburgh to attack Rodgers and whatever rushing game the Packers try to muster to no avail.

The Steelers ranked 8th in sacks this season, and bullied Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco in big moments during the playoffs. To bank your own Super Bowl XLV predictions on Rodgers being absolutely untouchable is virtual insanity. These are the Steelers we’re talking about.

I have lots of nice things to write about Green Bay’s defense, but nothing I have found in my metrics out weighs one cold hard fact: Ben Roethlisberger almost always finds a way in the playoffs.

And this time he has a more mature, more developed Rashard Mendenhall to keep the defense honest. The combination of the two is ridiculous.

For me, more than anything, this game comes down to experience and I’m not just talking about the Steelers’ six Super Bowl trophies. What I’m talking about is the path to the Super Bowl.

Green Bay dismantled Philadelphia, Chicago and Atlanta to win the NFC betting Championship. None of those teams truly tested Green Bay for a full four quarters. Atlanta practically quit halfway through the game.

The Steelers are dialed in. They’ve gone through a war of attrition with the Baltimore Ravens and a battle of wills against the arrogant New York Jets. They’ve been tested for two straight games, and they’ve survived. I can’t truly say the same thing about Green Bay. After all, had Michael Vick thrown a touchdown instead of an interception against Green Bay, they might even be here right now.

Balance wins championship games. Green Bay can pass the ball, slow the run down and frustrate any opposing passing game. However, Pittsburgh can do all those things AND run the bull extremely well.

Roethlisberger’s nasty habit for coming up big when it matters is tipping point for me. Has Aaron Rodgers really ever made “that throw” that pops out in your head? My Super Bowl XLV predictions aren’t just siding with Pittsburgh because of Big Ben – they’re simply a much more complete and dynamic team through and through.

That may not be the most thorough answer, but it’s the right one. Pittsburgh can do it all on offense and while their defense has some vulnerabilities in the secondary, it’s not like they’ve been spending the last two weeks crapping themselves while watching Aaron Rodgers’ game tape.

Pittsburgh has been here and they’ve done that.

They’re about to do it again.

Furious Super Bowl XLV Prediction – Pittsburgh +2.5 (OVER)

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