Friday Night Special – Cavaliers at Magic 1st Quarter OVER

There’s a full lineup of NBA betting tonight at the BetOnline sportsbook, but there’s one game NBA fans surely won’t want to miss. There are all sorts of interesting storylines going on in the Cavs/Magic tilt. The Magic are trying to take advantage of the Garnett-less Celtics and secure the two seed, while Cleveland and His Majesty LeBron are definitely going to want to make a statement after losing against Washington last night for the second time this year.

If you’re like me, the only thing that can up that excitement level even more is a wager or two. BetOnline is offering Live Betting on tonight’s game, which you should definitely check out. In addition, there are tons of bets you can make before the game. I’ve gone through all the different options, looking for the most favorable lines, and one of them really popped out at me. It’s an over/under pick for the 1st quarter. Here’s the totals betting line, the raw numbers you need to know, some analysis, and finally, your Friday Night Special Pick:

1st Quarter Totals Line:

• 47 O/U -115

1st Quarter Totals – Numbers You Need to Know:

• The Cavs are averaging 26.2pts in the 1st quarter over the entire season.

• The Magic are giving up an average of 23.5pts in the 1st quarter over the entire season.

• The Magic are averaging 26.7pts in the 1st quarter over the entire season.

• The Cavs are giving up an average of 22.0pts in the 1st quarter over the entire season.

• The Cavs are averaging 26.1pts on the road in the 1st quarter.

• The Magic are giving up an average of 22.4pts at home in the 1st quarter.

• The Magic are averaging 26.7pts at home in the 1st quarter.

• The Cavs are giving up an average of 22.8pts on the road in the 1st quarter.

• In their previous two meeting this season, the Magic and the Cavs have combined for 108pts in the 1st “q”. That’s an average 1st quarter total of 54pts.

Analysis: Looking at the overall numbers (no adjustment for away/home), the Cavs should score 24.85pts against the Magic, while the Magic should score 24.35pts. I got those numbers by averaging what Cleveland score and what the Magic give up, and vice versa. Add those two numbers together and you get a total of around 49pts (49.2 to be exact). If we adjust and use the away/home numbers, the Magic look better on the spread, but the total is basically the same, 49pts again: 24.05 for the Cavs and 24.75 for the Magic (48.8 total, to be exact). The two point difference from the line, which is at 47pts, is pretty significant, and we should already be heavily leaning towards the over, but we’ve got to check it against the results in the teams’ two meetings so far this year. The Cavs and the Magic have blown out the 1st quarter over: a total of 51 in the first game and 57 in the second. That’s some confirmation for sure.

Friday Night Special:

• OVER 47 -115 (1st quarter total)